Monday 28 February 2022

No good outcomes

Not many of us western Europeans know much about Ukraine.

Its just there, somewhere between here and Russia.

Ukraine is huge, laid onto the Belelux countries, it covers them all. And then some.

It is also the breadbasket of Europe, in that it grows something like 40% of all the grain grown in Europe. So conflict there has implications of food supply and food prices of what does get through.

Russia, the US and Europe signed a non-agression pact gauranteeing the safety of Ukraine so that Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal. Now Russia has broken that treaty.

Like it said this time last week there were no plans to invade. So any treaty for peace that might be signed would need the rest of the world to take Russia and putin at his word. And at the moment, it seems that the only country on Russia's side is Hungary.

In the speech last week that announced the invasion, recorded several days earlier on Sunday, Putin suggested returning Russia to its pre-1917 borders, which would mean Finland, Poland and Sweden would be at risk of invasion to. In the same speech, Putin said he did not recognise Ukraine as a sovereign country.

Already the threashold for charges for war crimes has been breached, and Ukraine signed up for coverage by the International Criminal Court, meaning that the court will have juristiction on crimes commited on Ukranian soil, whether Russia accepts the authority of the court or not.

Whatever the end state is going to be, it will be different to what it was before. Countries like Germany and Finald are changing generation-old positions of neutrality, and the EU is going to supply weapons in support.

The UK is going to publish more shots of Liz Truss standing on an aircraft carrier with yet more flags.

No comments: