Thursday 5 March 2020

Any old excuse in a storm

Coronavirus: well, this is a turn up.

I read about the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918-19 to see what a real pandemic looked like, and the effects. It is scary stuff. And reading experts reports, blogs about how to contain them now, and how important it is to get control as soon as possible to prevent spread by those infected.

In the US it is already close to being a pandemic, with Trump having put Pence in charge of response, his first act was to hold a prayer session.

Testing levels have been almost non-existant, so much so that the CDC is now hiding them on its webpages. People evacuated from China shared a plane with uninfected people, then were met at the airport by untrained staff, who then went home.

This is reality, something that cannot be lied about. Although doesn't stop Trump doing it. Everyone s getting better, he claimed. Well, apart from that person who died.

And here in Europe, sports events, trade shows and so on are being postponed so to stop un-necessary travel and people mixing. Plans are in place to suspend Parliament from Easter, so MPs don't become "super-spreaders".

We saw in China that productivity in the first two months crashed, and will likely happen in Europe too.

So, what has this to do with Brexit?

Well, companies that get into trouble and fold, like Flybe, do so not because of Brexit, but because of the virus. In the case of Flybe, it was both, with the virus torpedoing the already stricken company.

But failing companies in the news will be met with claims that it wasn't Brexit, but the virus.

But another possibility is that the extension period will be extended due to the virus, it might be called something else, but at the moment, anything is possible. But as I said yesterday, a double whammy of Brexit and coronavisus could be very difficult for many if not most companies. As is every delay to Brexit that has happened and will happen.

But one thing we can always be sure of is that reality will win out.

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