Sunday 16 October 2022

A Truss with little support

Usually, Conservative Prime Ministers are given a year before a vote of no confidence can be triggered via the 1922 Committee.

But rules can be changed, if feelings are that sour.

The Times is reporting that over 100 letters have already been sent in, more than enough to trigger a vote, normally.

But the Chair of the Committee is currently on holiday, and won't return to work until tomorrow, so we don't really know. But three MPs have already gone public with their letters of no confidence.

Even if the rule isn't changed, Labour is considering triggering a vote in the Commons, and would need just thirty or so Conservative MPs to vote with them to bring Truss down.

Her party is so riven by factions, even with a parliamentary majority of 60 seats, it is possible she won't be able to pass any legislation, including a replacement budget that there new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, yes that Hunt, but bring before the House.

Tax cuts for the rich as the expense of public sectr cuts would just be unacceptable.

But all this might be moot, as the markets might have their say first.

Hunt has announced some of the tax cuts not happening, but signalled more spending cuts to come. The question is, has Truss done enough in appointing Hunt to calm the markets and prevent a run on the pound and our pension funds?

On Friday the Bank of England ended its quantative easing on buying Governemtn Gilt Bonds, so the pound and our pensions are on their own now, just relying on sensible political policies from Truss and Hunt.

Hunt had an interview published in which he said there had to be huges changes, while Truss in the Sun said things would carry on, unchanged.

This is not a good look.

Markets open in the far east in about six hours, and a run on the pound and gilts would mean serious question being asked before the toast has cooled for breakfast.

If Truss can get through tomorrow, and then the week, maybe.

But anything can happen.

And just might.

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