Monday 11 February 2019

No safety net

A lot has been written and spoken about the backstop. Without many people realising what it is.

So, instead of calling it the backstop, think of it as the safety net.

Or better, a harness.

A harness keeping, say the former Lord Mayor of London attached to a zipwire while he waved two tiny flags. His harness, safety harness, attached him to the wire, and stopping him falling. So, he was safe, if looked a little foolish.

A lot foolish.

Now, imagine if the harness was time limited, it meant that unless the Mayor was on the ground, the harness would vanish (yikes) and the Mayor could fall to the ground.

Or if the people who ran the zipwire decided, after thinking about it, that a harness wasn't really needed, but was sure the Mayor would be safe to go down the wire anyway.

So, the backstop is there as a safety device, to kick in when all else fails. It cannot be a safety device if it is time limited, or if the one side can do away with it without warning.

And as UK has been less honourable in its dealings with the EU on the WA, the EU want to be sure the UK will keep its word, and the events of the last two weeks, have if it were possible, make it clearer that the backstop was needed.

So, will the EU change the backstop, ever? No.

Without the backstop there is no WA.

Without the WA there is no transition agreement (TA)

Without the TA there can be no talk on trade until the issue in the WA are settled.

Without the WA there is a cliff edge. Next month.

The EU has never wavered on this, and so the UK is playing a game of chicken, hoping the EU will blink first.

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