Thursday 14 February 2019

This is only the beginning

The mess the country now finds itself in, is just the beginning of Brexit.

The ratification of the WA.

This is not Brexit. Just the first part of it.

If the WA were to be agreed, and the UK left the EU and entered the TA, then we would have 21 months in which to agree the way in which the country trades with the EU.

The framework agreement allows for almost any kind of relationship, from total alignment to none, it is up for the UK to decide.

And that is where the real problem is: you thought the backstop was troublesome, wait until the way we trade with the EU has to be decided. This is the very fabric of Brexit, and is mired even more in dogma that the WA. Brexiteers would want no alignment, and most others would want as close alignment as possible to facilitate what trade is left.

In 21 months.

A total trade deal, where the UK knows what it wants and has to get that through both Houses of Parliament, and also get ratification from all EU27.

This is why Brexiteers are pushing for no deal now, because the reality is, any less will result in not just 21 months of internal political argument, but the need for the TA to be extended, possibly over and over again.

It comes down to the age old question, what is Brexit? If Brexit is leaving the EU, then getting the WA through the Commons and into law is that, but then what next? And as you see from above, the real problems haven't even begun yet.

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