Sunday 16 June 2019

The party of chaos and division

For decades now, the various leaders of the Conservative and Union Party have reclaimed theirs to be the natural party of business. In order to secure victory in the 1997 election, Tony Blair had to court business.

Make no mistake, Brexit has destroyed the business claim. And will take decades to win back, if it ever can.

Rather than listening to organisations like the CBI, Brexiteers have instead accused them of being part of the elite wanted to frustrate the will of the people.

The day of reckoning is drawing nearer, with the latest Brexit date four months or so away. And with each extension, come more uncertainty, more expense, more frustration. The next Brexit Day is 31st October, the time when many suppliers and retailers will be filling their warehouses with Christmas stock, there will be no room for more stockpiling.

Each batch of stockpiling brings associated costs, costs which hit their bottom lines. How many more Brexit dates will come and go before businesses say, what the hell, why bother?

And it seems 85% of businesses have failed to request no deal compliant paperwork. That, and the fact the civil service needs at least six months to prepare, tells you that more than ever, no deal is a huge bluff. And with attitudes hardening in Europe, the EU might just call that bluff.

And then what?

What is the plan B?

Plan A is either negotiate a new WA, or scrap the backstop, neither of which the EU will accept. So the choice is the current WA, no deal or no Brexit. The same choice it has always been but this time with it being likely that the EU will say no for a further extension, seeing as the UK has wasted, so far, this one. One might be allowed for an election, or a further referendum.

Or they might just say "non"

And then there will be days to decide no deal or no Brexit.

Parliament might be deadlocked, so no deal happen by simple operation of international law.

Brexit by accident.

So much for taking back control.

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