Sunday 23 June 2019

Wasting our time

Back before Easter, in the 2nd week of April, the EU granted an extension of the A50 period to take it to 31st October 2019.

Do not waste this time, the UK were warned.

The political class then went on a two week Easter Holiday, came back and the Conservatives began the process to unseat their leader.

Now we are in the what, 3rd week of that process to elect a new leader, and the field is now down to two. But this could take as long as five weeks to get to a winner. That could be the end of July, just as the summer recess begins, meaning that the new leader might not attend Parliament before the beginning of September, giver him just two weeks to "sort out Brexit".

That is, if whoever is elected can command a majority in the Commons. And that isn't a given.

Currently the Conservatives have a majority of 5 seats with the DUP support, which will have to be renegotiated, and the NI party might want another 30 pieces of silver, or £1 billion, to prop the winner up. Even then, that isn't a given, as during the elections, two MPs spoled their ballot papers meaning they could not support either candidates. So their support cannot be relied on.

On top of that a Welsh Tory MP has been recalled by their constituency the MP having been found guilty of expense fraud. If that goes to, say, the LibDems, then the majority has gone. Relying on rebel Labour MPs to vote for the Government.

A new Leader would have to put forward a new Queen's Speech, which would have to be voted on. Losing a vote in Parliament on passing the Speech would mean that the Government would fall. The House would see if other parties could put forward a coalition under a leader to form an alternative Government.

If not, an election.

From what I understand, if there doubts that the new leader could not command a majority, then the Queen might not "invite" the new leader to form a Government.

Eeeek!

And all this time, and maybe beyond, May would remain PM, if only in name......

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