Tuesday 23 July 2019

The end of May

Theresa May will probably not be Prime Minister by the end of Wednesday.

I say probably, because Johnson or Hunt would have to be "invited" by the Queen to form a Government tomorrow. And there is a chance that might not happen, let us see.

But, should we pine for those long glorious days, spread over three years, of May's leadership?

No.

In my last post I suggested otherwise, but that really was for pining for the country as it is now, come November 1st, or even 17:00 tomorrow, it could be a very different place.

May, let us not forget, as Home Secretary, brought in the "hostile environment", which saw many non-UK nationals, and even British citizens illegally deported from the country. Some people died in an alien country because of her policies. This is something she carried on when she became PM.

On becoming PM, May had the opportunity to strike a conciliatory note, to bring the two sides together. Instead, in her Lancaster House Speech, she spoke of citizens of nowhere and ruled out jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. This, by default, meant ruling out membership of the Single Market (SM) and Customs Union (CU).

It was said at the time, May got the UCJ and the European Convention on Human Rights mixed up, and in admitting this would be more embarrassing to her if she corrected that, so it was left. That might be true, sums up Brexit quite well.

And she made David Davies (DD) Minister for Brext, Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary and Liam Fox International Trade Secretary. In doing this, she split the FCO into three parts, making three silos and three competing departments, all hungry for trained and/or experienced staff.

The sequencing of the negotiations was to be the "row of the summer" two years ago, and yet the UK caved into the EU's demands, in what seemed like a positive move at the time, but meant that the WA had to be completed and ratified before talks on future trade could begin. The WA had just three parts, but the one on the Irish Border would proved to be problematic.

Problematic in that no Brexiteer had apparently ever thought about it, or had any plan in general about Brexit. Just get on with it, leaving the details to the same experts people like Michael Gove derided.

In trying to keep progress secret, the Government stored up problems and ill will, when after the legal challenge that resulted in Parliament having a vote on whether to trigger Article 50 meant they would also have a "meaningful vote" on the deal that was concluded, if there was one.

The WA, when it was concluded, was a dog of a thing, but spinning meant it survived getting approved by Cabinet and the DUP who kept May in power thanks to her ill-advised snap election in which she lost her working majority.

Only when the EU published the legal text did the shit it the fan, and yet those who approved it, must have know what it said, or did not understand it. Either way, in refusing to ratify the WA, the UK broke its word on the international stage, the Government negotiating a deal without the necessary political backing. A very bad look.

May only ever had three choices with Brexit. And that is true now as it was on 29th March 2017 when the A50 letter was sent. In failing to make that decsion as early as possible meant a problem gets bigger and critical with each passing minute.

Thanks to May, there can be no unification of the two sides of Brexit, those of us on the remain side were insulted, ignored over and over again. I will not moderate my position, since 52% was rounded up to 100% and 48& down to zero.

These have not been bad days, but worse ones are coming. But you and Camoron can take the blame for the end of days coming.

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