Lacking in confidence

Last night the PM won the vote of no confidence, so, by the rules of her party, she cannot be subjected to another for a year. But she can be subjected one in Parliament, and any MP or any party can trigger such a vote.

She did win, but there was a larger rebellion than anticipated, with the vote going 200:117, meaning that approx. one third of the parliamentary party have no confidence in the PM. In normal times, such a result would have meant the PM in question, Thatcher for example, would have stood down in fairly quick time. But these are not normal times.

And in a speech afterwards May did not indicate any change in course as a result of the split vote, just more of the same.

With the rebels getting just 37% of the vote, JRM called on the PM to resign, but Jacob, you lost; get over it.

So, what happens now. UK politics is such a mess and screwed, anything could happen.

But there are two strands to Brexit; domestic and international. And as a reminder that if nothing else happens, then the UK will leave the EU by operation of international law at 23:00 on 29th March next year.

This course requires no action, if there is an impasse in Parliament, Government and Cabinet, then the UK will leave, with no WA of TA, and all of the articles of the EU will longer apply to the UK, and the 1973 European Communities Act (1972) will be repealed. No one need do anything for this to happen, it just will play out this way.

That the EU and the EU Parliament do not want a no deal Brexit in itself is not enough to stop it from happening. It is the course of least resistance, and is the fall back position.

The next most likely outcome is that the current WA on the table is accepted and ratified. The EU will begin the ratification process this week, and despite all indications to the contrary, all that needs to happen is Parliament ratify it on the first, second or third attempt. It will probably be this or no deal, and in the end, this is better than nothing.

For the WA to be changed, and in particular the backstop altered, it would need for the UK to persuade the EU that it should, and for the EU27 to change the negotiating mandate of Barnier. This seems unlikely, but it could happen. But the legal status of the backstop is in the WA, no amount of fluff and fudge in declarations can make it legally binding, just the WA can do that. Then the UK would also have to ratify the WA.

An extension of A50 period of two years is possible, but there would need to be a good reason: a referendum of an election, and the extension could only be for a few weeks, as any longer meaning the UK is still in the EU on or after July 1st 2019, then there would have to be EU elections in UK and elected MEPs sit in the EU Parliament for the 5 year term. And there would be the associated additional costs of that.

UK could decide to join the EEA, the Norway or Norway plus option. But this would require the current members to agree, the EU to agree and the UK to ask for it, and for the UK to be acting in good faith and to not try to leave that in a few months or years. Norway has already vetoed the idea, but if needed pressure could be put on them, but the EU might just want rid of the UK, period.

Finally, there is the possibility that the UK could withdraw the A50 notification. It requires no action from the EU, just the UK, but as both major parties are against this, and there would be the political ramifications domestically on how or why this was done, no matter that it makes the most sense, it is the most unlikely.

The ERG and Brexiteers will not accept defeat, even if they expect remainers to do so. They will also no compromise. They will now do whatever they think needs to be done to remove the PM, even if they don’t have anything close to a unifying figure to bring the two halves of the party together. I mean, you can’t imagine the party voting for DD, Gove, Johnson, Leadsome, Fox or any Brexiteer to lead the party, just as Ken Clarke would be unacceptable due to his remainer leanings. And common sense.

May is mortally wounded. She had to agree to step aside before the next election in 2022, but if there is one before that, no one is sure what that assurance means. Ministers have been pushing for a series of indicative votes, as early as next week, on the options available, mainly no deal, deal or remain, and find out how the House is balanced.

Talk has also started on a Government of National Unity, though the possibility of that is a long way off, but some MPs are seeing the seriousness of the situation, which is a start.

As the politics are paralysed, it will be the economy now that drives the course of actions; the value of the pound, levels of investment, job losses, inflation and so on. Once one or more begin to tank, then things can change very quickly, but in some cases, by then it will be too late as jobs go overseas.

But, on a basic level, we will have to go through all this to kill off Brexit in UK politics forever. Had remain won the referendum 52:48, there would be more and more pressure for another referendum, as there was already a petition up online for that before the result was known.

So, there you have it. Nothing much has changed, for now, but the political crisis for this week is over, but more will be coming up thick and fast