I have been writing about Brexit for near on 30 months now, and through this blog and the reading I do for it, I have more than a basic understanding of the issues and challenges and also able to call out the barefaced lies that are spun in Brexit's support.
But what astonishes me is that I now better informed by not just the Brexiteers, but those who claim to be fighting it too. Take (Lord) Andrew Adonis, he tweeted yesterday that without legislation in Parliament Brexit could not happen. That he does not know Brexit is subject to international law first off, and domestic legislation second. Without doing anything else, the UK will leave the EU on 29th March next year, no matter what laws are passed in Westminster. The only way that happens is if the Government of the day either revokes A50 are asks the EU27 to extend it.
Nothing else will stop Brexit.
And the type of Brexit depends on the current WA on offer by the EU being ratified by Westminster. There is no other deal on the table, nor will there be. How many times do EU leader have to say the WA will not be re-opened.
And even if it was, then Spain would want to look again at Gibraltar, demands go both ways.
And it is the UK that is leaving, and those who pushed this insanity that should have come up with solutions to issues, roadblocks, identified risks and come with solutions to mitigate against them. The Irish Border/backstop issue was one of the most obvious, and typical of English superiority that they think that that Ireland is smaller than England, we should just get our way. That Ireland is not alone, it has the backing of the other 26 EU members backing it up still has not occurred to Brexiteers, it might be getting through now. Who do the Irish think they are? Europeans, that's what.
Seeing this being played out in real time just as predicted is very entertaining, and would be funny if the enormous pain and upheavals coming to my country were not so real.
Thing is, Brexiteers talk about trade deals all the time. There is no trade deal with even the EU yet, just a framework agreement. An agreement so vague that it allows everything from full alignment to full divergence, as the UK still has not made up its mind. If the Brexiteers think the EU have been hardheaded now, wait until Brexit really begins on the actual future trade agreement, whatever that will be. From the 30th March onwards, the EU will be fully focussed on getting what is good for it, its industries and people, irrespective of what that does to UK and its citizens.
And this is the easy trade deal, once we get onto the US, Japan, China and so on, they will play real hardball, and no one will be in our corner, just the people who have made such a good job of Brexit so far. Now isn't that a warm though, Liam bloody Fox doing trade deals, someone who is probably even less competent than DD. You really could not make this up.
But all this is to come, as the Brexiteers discover what trade deal, services and non-tariff barriers are and how they affect trade and the bottom line. Of course it will all be too late then, but still.
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