Zero target, zero idea

It is reported today that the PM has targeted a zero tariff deal with Australia to be completed in a month.

A regular reminder that thinking about trade in pure tariff terms is very old fashioned.

Zero tariffs on Australian beef would mean their farmers could flood the UK market, just as UK farmers have lost their markets in the EU. Which is not good news, but this was always the outlook of a trade deal that included farming goods.

Its hard to see how many will survive.

Such a deal will improve the UK GDP by as little as 0.02%, but could be less than that. Which will see an 87% increase in beef imports from Oz, while only 7% more flowing from Britain in the other direction.

But Brexit good news trumps the economic survival of farmers, who let us not forget were promised by Johnson that he would get a deal that would protect them.

Johnson will let everyone down in the end, his promises are not worth the effort it took to shape the words in his mouth.

Still.

Meanwhile, Sir David Frost has been speaking about the NIP:

‘We signed it in conditions... where we had the Benn-Burt Act and the requirement to get a deal before we could deliver on the referendum results”

“At the time we expected to be able to get some facilitations that we didn’t get. We expected there would be a trusted trader scheme, for example. We expected, like every other FTA, there’d be an equivalence mechanism in there. None of that we’ve got.

THe UK could have extended the transition to the end of 2021 if it had wanted, it was written into the agreement, the EU offered and suggested the UK do that. Johnson refused.

It also seems that Frost and his team didn't realise how the NIP would harm Britain - NI trade.

THat was literally his job to.

And one last reminder, if the UK does allow sub-standard meat from Australia into the Britain, then barriers on British beef producted exportied to the EU and NO will become harder.

Divergance creates more borders, that is what trade deals between countries seek to eliminate, and yet the Johnson is seeking in raising them between us and our nearest and most lucative market.