Wednesday, 27 March 2019

An end to the chaos?

Yesterday, the arch-Brexiteers JRM and Johnson, both switched sides and announced that they both would in fact support the PM in MV3 if the Speaker allows such a thing.

But the DUP decided they could not support the PM, this despite the PM having bunged them a billion quid a couple of years ago. You might not agree with the DUP, you might not like what they stand for, but they have a position and have stuck to it, in the face of huge pressure.

They decided the Union was more important that Brexit, or a hard Brexit, as the price being too high to pay.

This means the numbers just don't add up for the PM in MV3, without the DUP and the half of the ERG that did not switch sides.

The Brexit-ultras had one time to play their switching card, and had to get their timing right, and failed. Failed to even carry the whole of the ERG with them, so they are now a busted flush. We will have to see if JRM and Johnson go back to opposing, or if anyone really cares.

Later in the Commons, a Statutory Instrument (SI) was passed by a huge majority changing the exit date to match that which the EU offered the UK. Didn't stop people like Bill Cash trying to argue that May's request to extend A50 was illegal.

And later still, MPs had their indicative votes, and while nothing won, other options lost by smaller margins than others. Interestingly, 2nd referendum lost by only a handful, and revoke was the second least worst option.

No deal was the heaviest loser.

But deciding they don't want no deal doesn't in itself mean it won't happen, they have to decide on another course, so go back to the indicative votes on Monday.

In the meantime, May might try to bring about MV3, if the Speaker allows, but if it is clear she won't, and so won't resign.

Hope this makes sense.

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