Friday, 22 March 2019

To be clear

Just to clarify, if the Commons votes positive in MV3 and then ratifies the WA, Brexit can be delayed until May 23rd.

Or if they don't, then A50 is extended only until April 12th for the UK, either through the PM or Parliament, to come up with a new plan.

The EU actually cares more about the citizens of the UK than the PM does, and changed their policy on the day to adapt to May's lack of movement or actual planning.

May has said there might not now be a MV3 even if the Speaker were to allow it, as it seems impossible that it will pass. And so she will go straight to a series of indicative votes, hoping a clear policy that has cross-party support can be found.

What is important is that any of those votes must only be for choices or policies that actually exist, and not just cakeism. Pushing policies that were impossible to deliver is what brought the country to this point, and carrying on will only lead to more chaos.

There are few actual choices: no deal, May's Deal or no Brexit. Or a longer delay, meaning EU elections in May, for an election or 2nd referendum.

Parliament has said no deal should not happen, May's deal has been voted down twice in record numbers, so that leaves very little choice. Of course, no deal is still the default, but the UK can revoke A50 up to the end of April 12th, or as long as it is a member of the EU, but if they do, it has to be a definitive withdrawal, and not just to be be revoked and resubmitted. Such a move would need overwhelming Parliamentary and national support if the EU were to take it seriously.

At some point, the UK will need to have a discussion with itself, either in Parliament, through a referendum or some other mechanism, as to where it goes from here. To do it as part of the EU would be hard enough, but to have this with the national crisis of a no deal Brexit would be very hard indeed.

No deal plans were leaked to the Guardian this week, and it is not pretty reading, with Government expecting every department to be overwhelmed by expected and unexpected crisis, and there being so many, departments would be expected to tackle them as Government would be swamped.

Although we get to have a pause now, as a nation we cannot waste these three extra weeks, if nothing has changed by the second week of April, there will be no more time, the EU will wash their hands of us.

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