Shifting sands

We are now less than four weeks from leaving the EU, and nothing is agreed. At least domestically. There is no agreement in Cabinet, the Conservative Party nor Parliament.

But things will change, or there will be no deal.

It is increasingly likely that some kind of extension is not only asked for, but is essential. Though Mr Barnier stating that as a fact yesterday might well harden Brexiteers hearts against it, just because. Not that there is any logic behind anything they do.

Remember, an extension of two months is not long enough, as this will give the UK just two more weeks of dithering can-kicking time. The EU Parliament will rise, and it is impossible to see how that can be changed. So, if there is no domestic ratification by then, then no deal.

And I think that is the same for an extension too.

So as the Sunday papers are full of stories that some senior Brexiteers are coming round to supporting the WA, it is also likely that others will not, so a split in the ERG could happen.

As to what any of this means is anyone's guess. I would like to say that things will get clearer this week, but you know that has been said for months now. But time is running out, and nearly run out for an extension of more than two months, as domestic legislation for EU elections would need to be passed.

So, there might be some actual decisions, or there might just be more deck chair arranging on the sinking ship, HMS Brexit.