Monday 6 May 2019

Tory regicide update

So, news today of a non-binding vote by grassroot Conservative members of a vote of no confidence on the PM.

This is the best that can be done. But let's not forget, the referendum vote was also non-binding, so who knows?

Also, the 1922 committee members are still investigating about the change in rules to allow more than one vote of no confidence in a year. As it stands there can't be another until December, after JRM misjudged his move.

However, the chairman of the 1922 committee has said he would like to see a firm roadmap to May's promise that she would leave office. It could be that if May ignores backbenchers a change in rules might happen. Or not.

Other than that, a quiet Bank Holiday Monday, and now there is a Royal Baby to take Brexit off the front pages.

Time is ticking.

And remember, there is still just three choices for Brexit, none of which include a renegotiation of the WA, so ignore Labour who say there is a better deal to be done, the WA is closed.

The negotiated WA, aka "the deal". Needs the MV to be passed in the house, then the The Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill published, debated and passed in both Houses.

No deal. Still requires a huge amount of legislation to be passed, and would need agreement in both Houses, the one thing both Houses have already voted heavily against even the thought of.

Or no Brexit. Withdraw the A50 letter, and pretend this never happened.

All this makes the last one seem the most likely, but we have always thought that common sense would break out at multiple points in the last three years, and hasn't, so who knows?

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