Brexit update

I was offline pretty much for three days over the weekend, and there wasn't enough time yesterday to catch up on Brexit news. But, in short, the same three choices are available, the UK just has to choose one.

Johnson's plan seems to be:

1. Say the UK wants a (negotiated) WA.

2. Say what are the UK's (new) red lines, which go against the EU's red lines.

3. If UK don't get what UK wants, then UK will leave without a deal.

4. Blame the EU in all events.

Johnson said yesterday that his Government will spend what it takes to deliver any kind of Brexit. This magic money tree was not available for the past 9 years when there was no money for doctors, nurses, firemen, police, the armed forces, the sick, the disabled, the unemployed, single mothers, the legal system, the NHS, local Government, Legal Aid, FoI. But there was money for MPs pay rises.

Yesterday, in most of the right wing leaning newspapers, was coverage that Johnson has declared "war" on perceived soft justice. No early releases, and maximum sentences.

A reminder that MPs write laws, and the Judiciary interpret the laws based on their wording and precedent. If the PM doesn't like that, laws should be changed.

But at the same time, the whole legal system has been starved of funds, courts and courtrooms closed down, Barristers and other legal professionals working under huge pressure for peanuts, earning, in many cases, less than the legal minimum wage. As well as the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) being underfunded, so evidence goes missing, or traceability is compromised. In short, more meaningless soundbites from our tinpot Churchill PM.

Finally, a thread on MPs choices in stopping no deal Brexit in the 22 sitting days of the Commons before Brexit on 31st October.

By @ThimontJack.

Latest @instituteforgov report looks at what could happen in Parliament when MPs return from summer recess. Depending on the PMs approach, MPs could have limited opportunities to influence the #Brexit process

Short thread on key findings:

If Johnson does renegotiate a deal, there isn't much time to pass it. He would need to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (to implement the deal in UK law) through Parliament before ratification. If conference recess is scheduled as normal, only 22 sitting days 3 Sept-31 Oct

If Johnson presses ahead with no deal then we know MPs will do all they can to stop it. Voting against principle of no deal -or disrupting govt legislative programme -cant stop it alone. MPs may try to pass leg forcing govt to act (either request A50 extension or revoke A50)

But it will be harder for MPs to find opportunities to take control of Commons order paper to pass legislation than it was for MPs earlier this year when TM was trying to pass a deal

We identify three ways they could try:

1) amend emergency debate motions under SO24.

2) amend the 'neutral motions' required under the recent NI (Exec Formation) Act.

3) amend an FTPA no confidence motion - or a business motion allowing for a longer no confidence debate.

All would need Speaker to allow amdts...

MPs may also try a no confidence vote under FTPA - but as has been discussed at great length recently, we havent tested the 14-day period which would be triggered if Johnson lost & theres no guarantee Johnson would resign to make way for an alternative govt

Johnson could decide to initiate a general election himself to break parliamentary deadlock, but v little time to hold one before 31 Oct. Holding an election which runs over 31 Oct deadline would cause huge challenges for civil servants & ministers

All Brexit options are still on the table: deal, no deal, extension or revocation of A50 which makes events in the autumn v v difficult to predict