Wednesday, 7 August 2019

Where we are

Let me recap as to where the UK is:

1. In 2016, the UK voted, by a narrow margin, in an advisory referendum to leave the EU.

2. What "Leave the EU was not defined by the Government.

3. The official Leave campaign said the final deal negotiated would represent a better one for the UK than being a member.

4. Leave.EU also said that the detail of the WA and future relationship with the EU would be agreed before A50 was submitted.

5. As of today, 7th August 2019, the various UK parties and factions still have not agreed what Brexit is, (the future relationship).

6. Theresa May called a snap general election in order to "strengthen her negotiating hand" in Brexit.

7. She managed to lose her party's overall majority.

8. The A50 notification letter was sent before the UK decided what it wanted.

9. The Government tried to carry out Brexit in secrecy, trying all avenues to keep from updating Parliament in progress.

10. Parliament allowed the A50 to be sent without any conditions or restrictions on the Government.

11. The Government, through DD, accepted the EU's sequencing meaning the WA had to be agreed first, or at least sufficient progress deemed to have been made before talks on trade stated.

12. The Government sacked their ambassador to the EU before negotiations started because they did not like his honest advice.

13. In her Lancaster House speech of 2017, she set out "red lines" that would keep Brexit in a straitjacket, and force the UK towards a harder and harder Brexit.

14. The Cabinet, and in a week, the DUP signed off on the "sufficient progress" statement of December 2017.

15. Right away, DD tried to reinterpret what this said.

16. The EU forced him to apologise.

17. The shit hit the fan when the EU published the legal text of the agreement.

18. Since then, the UK have been trying to back out of it.

19. The backstop was originally a NI only fix, the UK complained and the EU relented and expanded it to the rest of Britain.

20. Now that compromise, requested by the UK, is what Brexiteers object to.

21. It emerged that Leave.Eu and other groups conspired to break electoral law on spending and data sharing.

22. Law was broken, and had the referendum not been advisary, the Electoroal Commission would have annulled the result.

23. People who were involved in the law breaking are now either Ministers oin Johnson's Cabinet or advisers.

24. Had the EU objected to the WA that had been closed, then I am sure Brexiteers would have had something strong to say.

25. The UK never took no deal preparation seriously. Still hasn't.

26. Any threat to use no deal is either seen by the EU as a bluff or stupid.

27. The is no national ban on leave for the police force for the first week of November.

28. An army of freight forwarders and agents need to be sourced and trained before 31st October.

29. Thousands of the smallest freight companies, amounting to 25% of all road freight have yet to begin the initial stages of registering for a no deal scenario.

30. If there is no WA, there is no transition.

31. A no deal would last for years.

32. There will be no side deals, as the EU would have to act under WTO most favoured nation status.

33. GATT Article 24 will not stop no deal chaos.

34. In a no deal, the EU would have to treat the UK like all other 3rd countries. If they fail to, any other 3rd party countries could launch a complaint under WTO rules.

35. There has always been, and will always be, three choices for Brexit: WA, no deal or no Brexit. No matter how many extensions there are or might be, these are still the simple choices.

36. The EU has negotiation and ratified the WA in good faith, believing the UK Government knew it could get political backing for it.

37. Not passing the WA is a major failure for the UK, and is the UK breaking its word on the international stage, just when it needs to go to dozens of countries to beg for existing trade deals we enjoy as an EU member to be rolled over.

38. Being seen as untrustworthy will see more legal clauses put into a deal, as out word is no longer our bond.

39. Many countries are refusing to roll these deals over, believing they could get a better deat, for them, than the one under any EU FTA.

40. It is economically illiterate to say you could replace trade with your closest neighbours with others halfway round the world, or the other side of the Atlantic.

41. The US, under Trump, is protectionist. And trade deal will heavily favour the US. And will come with conditions.

42. Donald Trump is trying to undermine all rules-based organisations, for example, NATO and, er, the WTO.

43. The WTO is jam-packed full of un-elected bureaucrats. The EU has elected ones, but Brexiteers have only issues with the EU.

44. Any deal allowing US food into the UK will mean the EU enforcing strict rule of origin checks on goods of the same kind crossing into the EU.

45. If the UK lowers tariffs to zero, there will be on imperative for countries to negotiate a trade deal, as they will already have the best deal, for them, there is. Negotiating.

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