Tuesday Brexit

A few threads today:

The first, left over from yesterday, is that there are two land borders between the UK and EU. One is clearly on the island of Ireland, but the other one is one that has hardly got a mention. Gibraltar.

Over 95% of Gibralains voted to remain in the EU, due to fairly recent memories of day long queues to get across the border before membership of the EU required accepting other member's borders. Another instance where Brexiteers failed to take into account the most basic issue of their previous Brexit policy.

An agreed WA continues this acceptance. No deal doesn't.

People who live on the rock but work in Spain might well find their route to employment blocked.

Next, the Operation Yellowhammer report. It now seems certain that the leaked report was from the start of August, when Johnson was already PM, and not, as IDS says, some old and tired report. If it is old and tired, Hilary Benn says, then please release it to his Commons Select Committee.

Johnson's assertion that it is a worse case scenario isn't true either, as it fails to take into account a possible breakdown in law and order, like the fuel protests in 2000 when a fairly small group of people brought most of the UK to a standstill.

What is interesting, or worrying, is that each policy area is being looked into in isolation. In the real world, these issues run into each other, and two or more minir issues create a major problem. Without a global perspective, it is possible to kid oneself that things were fairly under control.

As it is, the Government itself is only responsible for a third of the issues brought about by no deal Brexit, i.e. the ones it has responsibility for. There are two other sts, one where private companies have responsibility, and the third where the UK will reply on other country's preparation. If we take Johnson's and Gove's word that the Government's preparation is under control, what about the other two?

The Government is forcing all transport companies into the first part of registering with the EU to continue to export to the EU. That we are just eight weeks from Brexit and this has not been done yet is alarming. Preparations by other countries is something else, and it seems that in France, Belgium and Holland, at the sea ports, it seems preparations are completed. That being said as it seems the UK's plan is to let any freight in, no questions asked.

Things is, if there are massive queues in the UK to the ports, then transport companies might be unwilling to send drivers and/or trucks to the UK if they were to sit in jams for days if not weeks.

Overnight, Johnson sent a letter to the EU setting out his demands that the "undemocratic" backstop be removed from the WA.

Undemocratic in that there is no unilateral way out.

The same could be said of the GFA.

As stated before, the backstop would only come into play when all else, including technological solutions and MaxFac, failed. That this is still an issue for Brexiteers is the realisation that a solution is more than a decade away, and their alternative solutions is just technological solutions and MaxFac.

Even if the EU were minded to consider removing the backstop, which they're not, then they realise that the ERG is highly likely to vote against any agreed WA, so backing down would be pointless.

Finally, yesterday the Home Secretary went back on May's assurances to EU citizens that their status would not change. Free movement is now to end on November 1st. But the thing is, there would be no way of telling those who were living in the UK before that date, to those that arrived after either to live or just visit.

On the surface this is meaningless, and just a political measure to play to hardline Tories who might be thinking of voting for Farrage in an election. Meaning an election is now more likely to happen. And soon.

I expect there to be an election before the end of September, and unless the remain parties work together, the most likely outcome is a Tory-Brexit Party coalition, with a working majority enabling to to deliver a no deal Brexit.

Unless the ramain parties agree to only have one remain candidate per constituency, then the vote will be split, thus handing hard Brexiteers the way to deliver no deal.