COVID: one year on

TUESDAY, 14 APRIL 2020

Unknown unknows

It is my understanding that the daily mortality rates the Government releases every afternoon only includes people who have died in hospital, had a positive COVID-19 test and it states COVID-19 on the death certificate.

If a person did not die in hospital, had no positive COVID-19 test, then their death is not counted.

The ONS is compiling data on figures released later, and last figures I saw was that the daily figures are about 20% under reported of actual deaths.

The other thing is that the daily figure is not the actual number who died the in the previous 24 hours, this is a count of those actually confirmed after testing, post mortem. So, many of the 717 deaths yesterday did not due on the 12/13th April, but in March.

In other words, the Government has no idea on what the situation is like now, or if it does, is not saying.

2,099 care homes have reported to have at least one suspect or confirmed case of COVID-19, no data on total infection or mortality rates. And staff working in those institutions have less PPE than those in front line hospitals.

With every day, I have less and less confidence in the Government, and it started out pretty low anyway.

Any relaxing of the current clampdown HAS to be in tandem with testing on a massive scale and tracing contacts of those who test positive, otherwise is more glorious guesswork.

But, I'm sure there's nothing to worry about with Dominic Raab as stand in PM......

WEDNESDAY, 15 APRIL 2020

Top Secret

The UK Government has a special emergency planning panel, called COBRA. The COBRA for COVID-19 is secret. No one knows who is on it, immunologists are curious to know who is on the panel and what the plan is.

If there is a plan, of course.

But this is serious. Two weeks delay in social distancing will add tens of thousands of casualties, all of them someone's Mother, Father, Sister, brother, son, daughter, grandparent. And all have been sacrificed due to dilly and dallying. Remember, the Government were following a herd immunity plan, one which would have resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. All those two lots of tens of thousands and you have a national catastrophe.

The Government are saying they are following the science. But which science?

And new Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has today asked what the plan is for the end of the lockdown, because there has to be one. There has to be regular mass testing, and tracing those who have contact with who is positive.

Four weeks ago, the PM stated that testing for all NHS staff and care home staff was being rolled out. It still have not been done properly. Neither has getting PPE to staff either on the frontline or in G surgeries. A GP said he had a 90 minute drive each way today to collect four masks for him and his staff, as that is all they have been allocated.

Meanwhile Matt Hancock announced that testing would start on those being discharged from hospital into care homes. This was also promised by the PM a month ago.

Although no good news about PPE, he did announce they have bought some nice badges. I wish I had made all this up.

All true.

THURSDAY, 16 APRIL 2020

Friday

On March 10th, the world was a different place: The Cheltenham Festival began, 3.000 football fans travelled from Spain to Merseyside to watch Athletico beat Liverpool, pubs and restaurants were still open and the Government was dragging its heels regarding a lockdown. Events later in the week would change that, but I mention the date because locked away in the data on deaths released by the Government yesterday was the breakdown that only about a third of the deaths occurred in the previous 24 hours. Most had happened in the week before then, but 10% happened in March, with the earliest on the 10th.

Meaning the up to date figures are not that up to date after all, and to base any potential future action on incomplete data would be foolish, but then the Brexiteers are in charge.

People have been discharged from hospital into care homes without being tested, bringing with them the virus into confined facilities, where the virus can rampage through. No one is yet counting these deaths in the UK, the French are, and this makes up 20% of their figures.

Meanwhile the "Nightingale" hospitals that have been springing up and remain very underused, the reason for which is that any hospital that transfers a patient to one has to supply staff and equipment too, thus depleting already stretched resources at their own hospital. And yes, the above is true, @peston stated this last night.

The lockdown is to continue for at least three more weeks, but there is no plan beyond that. It seems the only plan was to flatten the curve in ICU admissions, and everything else, everyone else, was to be sacrificed so Government ministers could say the NHS wasn't swamped. That thousands are dying at home or in care facilities is a mere inconvenience.

It seems the Government plan is herd immunity after all, meaning hundreds of thousands of deaths, but at a slower rate. There is no plan for mass testing or tracking contacts, Ministers get angry when questioned about what the exit strategy; there isn't one.

Social distancing might continue for another year, with there being no crowds at sporting events, in pubs, restaurants. What businesses could survive that?

SATURDAY, 18 APRIL 2020

Chaos and madness continues

With the peak of COVID-19 upon us, or not, depending on whether you believe the Government's data, hopes that Government might be realising that maybe experts can be right, and that there should be some kind of delay and maybe a rethink on Brexit. But no, confirmation that even if the EU requests a delay, the UK will say no, as apparently the UK could have dealt better with the virus as an independent nation rather than tied to the EU.

The thinking is that if the UK economy comes through such a shock like we are experiencing now, then Brexit should be easy.

Also it means that any economic fallout could be blamed on COVID-19 rather than the perfect Brexit they will bring us.

But this is like having been struck by lightning, you may as well stick your wet finders in a plug socket back home, as what have you got to lose?

Anyway, in virus news, things are going worse, as some hospitals will run out of gowns and other PPE today. The Health Minister says he doesn't have a magic wand and resupply will take time. But again, the Government knew this was happening in January, supplies could and should have been secured then. Over 80 nurses, doctors and other health workers have dies from COVID-19, that number will get worse. Appallingly.

If soldiers went into battle without weapons or ammunition there would be an outcry, why is the Government being given such an easy ride on this?

And it was suggested that the total fatalities in the UK could top 40,000. That is two jumbo jets crashing every day for the rest of the year.

SUNDAY, 19 APRIL 2020

#BorisResign

How quickly the mighty fall.

Last week the country was encouraged to "clap for Boris" when he was ill in hospital, and today the Murdoch owned Sunday Times turned on the PM and has published a damning report on how Johnson and the Brexiteers wasted the six weeks from the beginning of February.

This came on top of two other reports, in the Financial Times on how the decision to order ventilators from UK companies that had never made things before, using a new design rather than building under licence, the requirements for the ventilators were set wrong by the Government from the start, and what was built dd not have certification to be used, but once it was, was found to be unsuitable for use on COVID-19 patients. But otherwise, wonderful.

888 deaths were announced yesterday, just in hospitals. The figure for the whole country is likely to be at least twice as big.

The WHO announced that it was also highly likely that those who had recovered from the virus would not have antibodies, thus torpedoing Johnson and Cummings' herd immunity plan.

But the Sunday Times report claims that Johnson took two weeks off in February to complete a book he had been contracted to write, lest he have to pay the advance back. I can remember writing about that at the time.

But Johnson, already notorious for not having a good grasp of any brief, missed 5 COBRA meetings in a row when he should be leading.

When the Government should have been preparing for COVID_19, it was, instead, arranging for shiny new 50 pence pieces to be minted, blue passports and preparing for no deal Brexit. All of the machinery of Government engaged in a pointless and wasteful taks, like the Heart of Gold trying to make a cup of tea. Brexit will make us poorer, but will also have killed 60,000 of us in the process.

Cabinet Ministers yesterday said, anonymously, there was no plan. The public seemed to want to have a lockdown, so that's what they did. And when the public no longer will accept the lockdown, it will be relaxed. But nothing based on something like science of facts.

Having written about this group of talent-less charlatans for nearly four years, that they have messed up on such a grand scale is not surprising, but what is surprising is how the media and senior reports for the BBC and ITV have just parroted Government lines, no scrutiny, no journalistic endeavour.

People knew what Johnson was like, and voted for him anyway. And the press; he was once one of them, went to school and university with many of the senior reporters, so was one of them and their friends. It wouldn't be British to report accurately on what was going on, best be loyal to the Old Etonion.

MONDAY, 20 APRIL 2020

Fake fake news

Over the weekend, The Financial Times and Sunday Times published well researched reports on the Government's apparent lack of planning and preparedness. This resulted in the unusual step of the Government to release two 3,000 word rebuttals on the claims.

But more interestingly is that the BBC has seen fit not to mention either of these stories the weekend, especially the Sunday Times one which paints the PM in such a shocking light.

While I agree that these claims are unproven, they are claims that have the highest public interest, and in the past, on many occasions, the BBC has referenced claims made in newspaper reports in "quotation marks". But not over the weekend.

Despite the Government engaged in heavy firefighting due to these stories and the spread of them on social media, the BBC reported on the daily press conferences as normal.

The BBC's chief political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, has not filed a story or reported on these serious stories.

It is all rather odd. And meanwhile another 600 people were added to the official casualty list, another Jumbo jet sized number of deaths, and the BBC seems to think that all of this is normal.

And still there is no news on what the medium term plan is for COVID-19 planning. What happens in three or six weeks when the lockdown is loosened, how will that be handled? What will open, what will not? Can people gather in groups of two, three, ten or more? Will social distancing still be in force?

The Government does not say, maybe it doesn't know.

Such a plan should be part of a larger strategy which went from first confirmed case to the successful deployment of a vaccination and the population safe again.

I heard from a colleague in Denmark today, that plans are in place for further lockdowns are needed to deal with a second and third wave. It would be the same for the UK to, meaning any potential return to normality might only be temporary.

It is possible that social gatherings in pubs, bars, restaurants and sporting events might not be deemed safe until the autumn, winter, next year or 2022?

Imagine that!