Sunday 11 April 2021

There may be trouble ahead

With there being just about a total news blackout of anything other than royal-related, it will be hard to keep abreast what is happening with COVD and Brexit, but one thing we do know is that the EU is yet to ratify the TCA. And the deadline for that is 30th April.

There should be a lot of scrutiny, and the only week where that is possible if the forthcoming week. And yet in the EU's listed busines,s nothing TCA specifically is listed. Oversight and scruntiny is the heart of everything the EU does, and as the TCA removes some of what would normally bein the public domain and place them in committees which are held in mostly provate, this would be a surprise if some kind of discussion on this wasn't held.

The EU could ignore this and just do it, but this would be a shift for them, and not popular with many member states.

The alternative is not to ratify it, and there either be an extension or "no deal" by another route.

Because EU rules doesn't say there can be an extension therefore does not preclude one. The EU has been waiting to see how the EU implents the WA, the TCA and the NIP. Its not gone well, and there might be a temptation to set an example, doubly so with legal action against the UK in progress.

So, what will happen?

I have no idea, it might be interesting, and not in a good way.

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