Saturday, 19 January 2019

Brexit options

Today (Thursday) has been spent by the PM writing letters to Corbyn asking him round for talks. About Brexit of course.

He refuses until she drops the no deal scenario.

She refuses talks with anyone who does not respect her red lines. Remember, she suffered a defeat so big on Tuesday in The House there is no word to describe it. A defeat so big that the WA cannot be presented to Parliament again. Which is a shame, as it needs to be turned into law to avoid a no deal Brexit. Because nothing has really changed, only making no deal more likely.

Had May tried to reach out two years ago, it might have lead to something, but not now, not this late in the process.

There are now no easy choices, each of which has huge political cost from whoever makes it.

No deal: huge job losses, recession (at least) food shortages and now they’ve called up military reservists for a year.

Deal. It is dead. Deader than flares. The EU will not reopen it. Without a WA there is nothing else, no TA, no trade deal. The WA cannot pass the House with the backstop, yet all parties having approved it 13 months ago.

An extension to A50: but only of a few weeks. So few it makes little difference.

Withdraw A50. Neither the PM or Corbyn want this, and both have ruled it out.

But one of the above will happen.

In the end, Brexit was always a shit idea. But putting the crème de la crème of the Brexiteers, sacking civil servants who could have helped, triggering A50 with no plan, calling a snap election so losing her majority and so on and on and on and on means with was going to be shittier.

No PM could have done much more, but May’s red lines really shaped the WA and so she got the Brexit she wanted. What the ERG wanted. What the Brexiteers wanted. What the media moguls wanted.

And all they do now is complain.

Well fuck them, fuck them all.

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