Tuesday smooseday

In a secret report obtained today by the FT, it seems that inspections lasting 70 seconds per vehicle at the port of Dover would create a tailback that would take a week for the truck at the end to reach the front, Monday morning start to Saturday afternoon to be on a ferry.

However a delay of just ten seconds more, would create permanent tailbacks that would clog up the entire motorway system.

This goes against what Brexiteers says and the small band of “experts” that back Brexit as a sane plan. In the same way I saw an article that says the WTO states that no extra checks need to be carried out at border points, either Dover or on the Irish Border, despite the head of the WTO saying they would be needed.

In three months we will know for sure. But by then it will be too late to reverse the effects.

Much has been made of “just in time” deliveries. I have seen how these work in reality, both at the Honda plant in Swindon when I used to do some agency driving when I was still in the RAF, and at the factories I visit now as part of my job. Long lines of trucks wait outside the factory each morning, to supply a maximum of two working day’s parts to the factory. In most cases, what is on the back of the trucks in the morning, is fitted to a WTG during the day and the finished component is shipped in the evening.

The reduces stock. It is holding stock that ties up capital. Holding too much costs money, and weighs the business down. Saying that additional checks or delays of a few hours or days won’t hurt, but it would mean that manufacturers would need to tie up money in expanding the stock they hold on site, and invest more capital in building storage facilities.

In reality no manufacturer would do this, as money is everything, and this would seriously threat the profitability of what they were producing, meaning that production would be swapped to somewhere, in the EU, where there was a secure supply chain. It is basic economics, and frustrating to see people with no experience of cross border supply chains mansplaining the subject to actual manufacturers who deal with this on a daily basis and have for years. But there’s Brexit for you.

DD was on the radio this morning, saying that the UK should not take the EU’s word, and really test the mettle and try to dictate terms. This from the man who was the actual minister for Brexit for 725 days, admitting he had not done his job properly, and John Humphries chuckling along with it, just the like the old pals they are. DD also suggested withholding the £39 billion divorce payment, which did shake Humphries into stating that would make the UK a pariah.

So, less than three months until Brexit, and nothing has really changed, just the amount of time left.

It is understood that the UK has been putting out “feelers” to the EU to see if it would be agreeable to an extension of the A50 process. As always, that depends on the circumstances. Maybe to allow an election or new referendum, but just give the UK to prepare for a no deal? Probably not, and such a decision would have to be unanimous from the EU27, and one would be likely to object.

There are three choices on the table:

No deal

The WA

No Brexit.

Other than that, extending A50 as we can see, is not a given and not something the UK can do, it has to ask, and it has to be granted.

May is trying to get the backstop time limited to the end of 2022. This is fine, but it just creates another cliff edge there, and nothing to replace it, so the EU will reject this.

Same old plans, just with the words in different order…..