Choices are limited

It is worth noting at this point, again, that as a matter or international law, the UK will leave the EU on 29th March. After which date the articles of the EU will no longer apply to the UK. This will happen, no matter what happens in domestic politics, unless the Parliament and Government agree that something else should happen. There is no way in which no deal cannot happen; in fact it is the default option. It will happen if nothing else is done.

If that doesn’t focus the Government and Parliament’s minds then, I don’t know what will.

The other things that will stop this are:

The WA being ratified in Parliament. Meaning that there would be a TA of at least 21 months, probably longer, during which time the UK will not be a member state of the EU but for all intents and purposes, it will continue to enjoy the benefits, just not be part of the discussions that other Member States participate in. A rule taker then, rather than a rule maker. The EU Council have already ratified the WA, so the ball is very much in the UK’s court, as it were. The EU will not reopen the WA.

The second choice is the extend the A50 period of two years. It could be extended until July 1st, but beyond that it becomes difficult as a new session of the EU Parliament would begin to sit, and UK would have no MEPs. That could be politically overcome, but would need to be in exceptional circumstances, but it would need to be something exceptional, like to allow time for a referendum or an election. But both Parliament and the Government would want that and be requested. The EU cannot extend the process.

As the EU cannot stop, or revoke the A50 process either. Only the UK can do that, in accordance with its constitution, in that an act would have to be passed and the Government send the revocation in the same way the notification was sent. It would have to mean the end of the leaving process, or in other words, not cancel then restart again once the UK decided what it wanted.

All of the above would have to be done in “good faith”, in that the EU trusts the UK’s word and that there is political agreement on what course of action is to be taken. For extending the A50 period, all EU27 and probably regional parliaments would need to unanimously agree for that to happen. It would be unlikely that, in good faith, this would happen. But stranger things have happened.

The UK is in a bad place, with no easy choices. The only path that requires no action will result in the destruction of parts of the economy and industries, but that is a choice as there is the option to stop Brexit. A no deal Brexit would happen because politicians and Brexiteers would rather that happen than admit they made mistakes or lied, no matter what it did to the country. And they are back by vulture capitalists, just waiting to peck the remaining flesh from industry’s bones post-Brexit.

We could change course. The iceberg has been sighted in time. We know the risks and costs. We don’t have to hit the iceberg and sink, we just have to say “stop”. It is all avoidable.