Tuesday, 1 January 2019

Mystic Jelltex returns

In truth, I have no idea what will happen this year, certainly in terms of either Brexit or Trump.

I know what I would like to happen, but so far what we always would never happen has actually happened.

I think Trump will be impeached this year, but that out of blind hope rather than due to any actual facts. Though to me that some any of his inner circle have no pleaded guilty, some of whom are serving time, menas he looks as guilty as a puppy standing beside a large pile of poo.

As for Brexit, one of several things will happen.

The most likely is that there will be a no deal Brexit. This is because no one has to do anything, no laws or motions need to be passed or anything ratified.

The next is that May's WA and TA will be ratified, this only required Parliament to ratify it. Although the EU will have to, as it has been negotiated by Barnier following the terms the EU Council laid down.

Next is that there will be a no Brexit at all. This is because, again, Parliament would have to pass a bill instructing the Government to withdraw the A50 notification. The EU could not do anything to stop it.

Finally, there are the other options, like Norway (with as many plusses as you want after it), same with Canada and with delaying Brexit or suspending the A50 requires both the UK Government to request it, and the EU27 to agree to that. And there is reopening the WA, which there clearly isn't time for.

Which leaves us with the 2nd (or 3rd, as there was one in 1975) referendum. There isn't time and would need a considerable delay in Brexit.

In short, despite knowing all this, your guess is as good as mine, and any of which will divide the main two parties and the country far worse than we have seen up to now. So, it will be, er, interesting.

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