More Brexit means Brexit

Chris Grey is one of the best commontators on Brexit, doing a weekly, sometimes more frequent, review of the current issues and also looking forward. In his current post he states, quite clearly, that Brexiteers, Vote Leave and now the UK Government wanted the feeling of sovereignty but didn't realise it came qith consequences.

That the current issues are not teething problems, or interpretation issues by the EU or punishment, but at the direct result of Brexit itself.

Leaving the EU regulatory area creates a border for goods entering the SM and CU, unless the expectation was that the EU would abandon those two concepts too.

They did not, nor did they bend any rules, make any kind of concession, instead, as they always stated the integrity of the SM, and the CU, was more important, valuable, than trade to and from the UK. The UK thought different. And was wrong.

It is possible that Johnson, Gove, Raab and all of them, thought that they could have Brexit and nothing were to change, maybe that's why even into January the PM and the MI Minister were denying a border, yet the NI Protocol signed 15 months previous clearly made it so. I always assumed that the lack of preparation was a cover to leave everything to the last minute so to stifle scrutiny and debate, but that might just have been a side effect of the total ignorance of the Brexit snake oil they were selling.

In the end, no one will like this Brexit, because of the costs, politial and economic, it came with. But any Brexit would have had equally devastating and painful costs, Johnson just had to choose one. Regulatory borders have to go somewhere, or you have a process for making them go away. But the point of Brexit was divergence, so it is that that has to be managed. Both the UK and EU start from total alignment, but will diverge.

It seems the UK Government thought the EU would consult with it on all matters relating to trade, tariffs and non-tariff barriers, after spending five years demanding we leave the very institutions that decide this. The EU treats the UK as any other third country, because that's what WTO rules say they have to, or create a potential dispute with other trading nations.

In over 40 years as a member state, the UK demanded to be treated differently, and the EU did. But the UK left anyway. And now as a third country the UK wants to be treated differently from all other third countries, and the EU can't, even if it wanted. Brexit MEANS Brexit, even if Johnson, Gove, Raab don't understand it.

An article in the Spectator this week claims that as Brexit hasn't been as bad as some forecasted, then its a success. Because the UK hasn't turned into Lord of the Flies (yet) or The Hunger Games, doesn't mean it won't, or be that bad, but as these posts have detailed, companies are leaving, trade in financial services have left, investment by Japanese companies has stopped, shellfish exports are impossible, which the Spectator report says of: it’s just the way it is.

Apparently.

Brexit is forever, and what we see now will continue, and will get worse as the waivers in many areas will run out and more paperwork, more checks will be required.

But anyway, have a great weekend.