The Brexit gap

There is a gap between what was promised of Brexit in the run up to the referendum and to what was the Brexit we ended up with.

To star with, it is important to see what the referendum asked, it said:

"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

Beyong that, nothing was defined, other than the official position of the Vote Leave was not to leave the SM or CU. I think that's right. I cam remember them saying that: "no one is suggesting we leave the SM".

And yet we did.

So, in order for the referendum to have been carried out, we have to decide whether the political act of leaving the EU on January 31st 2020 satisfied this, or was it the effect of the nont-promised leaving the SM and CU that satisfied it.

To the point that, political Brexit meant that the Articles of the EU no longer applied to the UK as a member state, that was January last year. As I stated earlier, anything else was a poliitical decision by May and Johnosn.

Further than that, the referendum was advisary only, the provision in the enabling act was for Parliament to access the effects, and decide, if it wanted, to ignore the result.

That is fine, legally of course, but to ignore the political effect of the referendum would have been very difficult, unless the analysis of the costs and trade offs was done. But it never was.

It was always, and in some ways still is, painted as a consequence free activity.

Which was and still is a lie.

Like many aspects of Brexit, Brexiteers can agree on one thing, like leaving the EU, but what that meant in practice was open to interpretation and disagreement. So, Brexit was kept vague, and to keep it on track, the "will of the people" was always invoked.

The PM, Theresa May, announced at the Conservative (and Union) Party Conference, in September 2016 that Brexit meant leaving the SIM and CU. The then Chancellor, Phillip Hammond, revealed in an interview yesterday, he did not know this was going to happen and was not a Cabinet arrived at decision, and was something he did not agree with, and yet did not resign in protest.

Right from the start, Northern Ireland, and how Brexit would impact it would shape Brexit. It was always going to be a political minefield, but there were three simple choices, each one a nightmare and ased questions on the status of Brexit, all of Ireland or the Union of the UK. We see today that because of Loyalist intimidation, food and livestock checks are being suspended at some NI ports as the reality of the deal is hitting home on the now fractured Union.

Intimidation, the calling of those who work in ports as "targets", and so on cannot go on for long, as checks need to be carried out. The DUP is the only major NO Party that did not back the GFA, and even after two decades of peace would happily see it gone, and so the NI Protocol or te GFA could be a political target. Indeed one of the DUP MPs today called for the Protocol to be scrapped. But without it there can be no Brexit with trade.

The possibility of a reigniting of violence in NO was warned of, and yet dismissed at yet more project fear by Brexiteers. And yet NI is often forgotten by Brexitters with talk of Global Britain when NI is not in Britain, but in the UK. When it was convenient for May and Johnson to have the DUP onside to carry support before the December 2019 election, NI was front and centre of their thoughts. Once Johnson won his 80 seat majority, the DUP and NI were thrown away to get the WA. The WI clearly called for a hard border, a regulatory one, down the Irish Sea, no matter how many times Johnson denied it.

So, we have a Brexit that satisfies no one, and one that all will condem in time, one that breaks up the Union of the UK, and maybe allows Scotland to leave too. It is also one that handicaps UK and British businesses, importers and exporters, does nothing for services and stops the very much in demand, low skilled EU workforce that used to pick our fruit and vegetables and look after or sick and elderly frineds and family. It also reduces our voice in Europe, and on the international stage, to reduces the huge amount of soft power we once had, and the actions of Johnson before Christmas demolished any trust potential trading partners may once have had.

Everything each UK taxpayer used to pay 43pence a day for the EU to do, and get many tens or even hundreds back in return by our country's businesses being able to sell to over 400 million EU customers rather than just the 72 million in the UK> Margaret Thatcher got this, but Brexiteers don't.