The perfect imperfect Brexit

In a column yesterday, Rapael Behr, wrote about the never ending Brexit we have allowed Brexiteers to drag us in to.

Brexit is not done.

It can never be done.

Well, the only way it can be done is by either cutting all ties with the EU, no exporting, importing, no data, no tourism, no eergy, nothing; or we rejoin the EU.

Otherwise Brexit is forever.

We know this because the TCA is all about managed divergence. And if we diverge too much, there will be talks, and if they fail, consequences, maybe in restricting or stopping all trade.

It is also set up for constant talks, every six months at least in over 30 fields, and review of agreements in five year cycles.

It is what Johnson negotiated, his Cabinet signed off on, and Parliament ratified.

Now it bacem clear that Brexit wasn't done, Johnson got his negotiator back to do talking, tough talking if rumours are to be believed.

But everytime the EU says "no" to comething, it will be bullying by the EU. Not the systems actually working.

And this will feed into Brexiteers persecution complex about the EU, no matter how bad it goes, it will justify the leaving.

If the EU bullied the UK as a member state, then it will do so, with bells on, with the UK as a member state, and will give them something to really have a good moan about, or as Mr Behr states:

"For the true believers, a good Brexit is one that keeps the grievance alive; that makes foreigners the scapegoat for bad government; that continues to indulge the twin national myths of victimhood and heroic defiance. Measured for that purpose, Johnson’s pointless Brexit is perfect."

The EU has always been a vent through which PMs and Governments were able to blame their own policy failings on. Now that the UK has left the EU, it can do it again. And yet this comes after we were told the UK held all the cards.

Until UK politicians see the EU as an enemy that needs to be defeated, or something to wine or lose against, there can be no real place for us in Europe or the EU. As DAG puts it, the TCA was set up as it was thought that the two sides would discuss things in a cool and calm manner, discussing and dealing with issues and disputes. It won't work if one side sees it as a dispute facilitator rather than a solution one, this might be as good as it gets.

The EU is getting fed up with the UK saying one thing in talks, then having Johnson or Gove say the opposite to the press. The TCA is not yet ratified in the EU, and might never be. There are two further implementation stages in imposing regulations, so things will only get worse.

@Mij_Europe writes on Twitter:

I've been of view for some time that TCA represents high point in what's likely to be a difficult & deteriorating UK/EU relationship. Despite public pronouncements to contrary, in private, officials on both sides now acknowledge that this seems likely.

For EU - Because HMG continues to misrepresent deal it struck to public & blame EU for its consequences. EU finds gap between Govt's rhetoric & reality unreal. This is killing trust. Reduces influence of more moderate member states that are open to addressing problems in TCA.

For UK - Because Tory strategists continue to see electoral benefit - with red wall voters & constraining Labour - of a hard line on EU. Crystallised by Frost appointment, who as a believer in EU divergence, will now sit in Cabinet & advise on domestic regulation & reform.

EU believes Govt's first reflex is tactical - politicise every issue for short term gain. But this has strategic consequence of reducing likelihood HMG can secure changes it wants to TCA that will help alleviate some of challenges businesses are facing - today & in future.

U has been moderate in its response to HMG misrepresentations & accusations so far, but a fight back is likely if it continues. Moderate EU capitals & voices are becoming a minority. If we think last 8 weeks have been bad, wait until escalation is pushed from BOTH sides.