COVID forecast and results

On 9th March 2020, I wrote the following forecast on COVID based on data coming in from Italy. This was my first COVID specific COVID post:

"In the UK.

Population 66.5 million

Infections at 2%: 1,330,000

Those needing ICU treatment at 10%: 133,000

Hospitals need to create ICU space now in both countries. The UK is two weeks behind Italy in progress of the disease. In the US there is so little testing and action from Trump's administration, who knows?

We have to fight ignorance and inaction, and fight it now.

If infection rates are higher, then the numbers get really scary. Fatality rates of coronavisis COV-2 has been estimated at approx 3.4%, in Italy is is 4.25% and increasing."



Actual total number of infections in the UK as of 16:00 last night:

15,506,750

Actual numbers of hospitalisations:

674,118

Actual number of deaths with COVID on the death certificate:

174,872

It didn't have to be this way, but was. And that was a political choice, one which Johnson and the Health Secrety are now trying to paint as a success. It has been an abject failure, and should result in criminal prosecutions.