Mystic Jelltex rides again

We went into 2021 hoping it would be better than 2020. We were wrong.

It was worse.

Much worse.

So, what of 2022, that must be better, right?

2022: hold my beer.

1. COVID will get worse in the next two to three months. Not mitigation actions by Government ensure a massive spike in infections with spikes in hospitalisations and deats to follow in three and six weeks. Having vaccines as the only weapon in the war was never going to work. More beds are being created, but there is no extra staff to man them. An ICU bed needs three staff. You can create as many Nightingales as you want, but without staff they're just buildings with beds.

This will not be the last variant of concern, and as long as Johnson and his Government make the same mistakes by not learning lessons of the previous waves, more and more people will get infected and die.

This is a policy choice by the Government, nothing was inevitable in this wave. Waiting until data is clear restrictions are needed will ensure the restrictions will be harsher and in place for longer than if brought in earlier.

Unless restrictions are imposed by Government, people will just isolate on their own impulse, and businesses that would have received their custom will be further stressed. We will see many businesses failing with out formal restrictions and more furlough.

2. Brexit. Rules that were brought in today were UK rules, not EU ones, no matter what the Daily Star says. THe learning slope will be steep. I expect there to be food shortages. As in every year, Brexit will battle reality, and reality will win. Will Truss remain as Brexit Minister all year, or will it eat her too? I am just waiting for some common sense to break out. Already battle lines are being drawn n the Tory Party in anticipation for any softening by Johnson. There will be periods of calm, and then there will be crisis, usually to divert attention from corruption in the Government. It gets huge support from the Tory Grass Roots and the ERG. Ruins the UK's international reputation.

3. Fuel crisis. Fuel costs in Europe are at record highs and show no sign of slowing down. People are going to see increases of about 50% by summer, and could get worse if Russia plays hardball with gas supplies. All energy is prices in US$ so if the £ weakens, energy gets more expensive too.

4. Inflation. Already at a 5 year high. Brexit related shortages and price increases due to new import controls will push up prices, as will the price of fuel. Already poorly paid people will see their limited disposable income going less and less further.

5. Government paralysis. Despite having a 79 seat amjority, Johnson is now a hostage to the ERG and backbenchers, with the Whips having lost control. Public Health is now second priority behind Johnson staying in power, and to stay in power he must pander to the headcases in the ERG. A 79 seat majority and having no authority to wield that power. Quite incredible, and the same situation awaits who would follow him into Number 10.

I see nothing to be positive about in 2022.

Sorry, but there it is.