Sunday, 6 January 2019

A permanent state of Brexit

Between now and the 14th of January, and possibly well beyond, if May's deal is refused, then Parliament will do little else for the foreseeable future anything else other than Brexit. In fact, this is the situation with any choice, except revoking A50, that Brexit is not just for March, it is for life.

Imagine all the other things Parliament could, and should, be doing, were it not for Brexit.

And this will be the new normal, because, let us not forget, Brexit has not really started yet. This is just the Withdrawal Agreement and Framework Agreement. The real discussions and negotiations on the future trade deal have not stated yet, and cannot start until the UK actually leaves. And then the going will really get tough. The Framework Agreement is so vague as to allow almost any kind of relationship between the UK and EU, from total alignment by way of either A or THE SM and CU to almost a no deal. And everything inbetween.

The blanks have yet to be filled it.

So, we are not at Brexit yet, just the point where the Articles of the EU will no longer apply, and once that happens there is a 21 month TA, if the WA is ratified by the UK, during which nothing will change other than UK ceases to be consulted on EU rules and regulations, and just has to accept them.

There is another cliff edge coming on 31st December 2020, if the WA is ratified, and at that point there will have to be some kind of trade deal in place, and for that, the UK will actually have to face the fact between the PM, Government and Parliament, they will have decide where it is the country is to end up.

The other thing really is that Brexiteers and their cheerleaders in the press don't really understand what a negotiation is, in that you have to have leverage, and be able to give some things away to get the things you want; not just go in with a list of demands and expect the other side to cave it. Though many Brexiteers said the UK held all the cards and this would be the easiest deal in history. We can see how well that forecast went.

And even once the Trade Agreement is reached some time in the next decade, Brexit will tick on as the effect of each new EU regulation and law will have to be discussed between the UK and them. Brexit will go on and one, eating money and resources. Forever.

And the Brexiteers tell us we won. I'd hate to see what losing looked like.

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