In short supply: supply and confidence

Two and a half years ago, the then PM, May, called a snap general election resulting in her party losing its working majority.

It was a massive miscalculation.

But it is a fact often overlooked, that it is a result of that election that the Commons has the members it has today.

The referendum was run on the previous Parliament, Brexit was executed, or try to be executed in this.

May asked the country to support her vision for brexit, and the country stuck two fingers up at her.

Mainly, it has to be said in the hope Labour would change policy to remain. And unless Comrade Corbyn is clear and unequivocal about such a swap in the coming weeks, the electorate will not make the same mistake again.

That said, May without a working majority was forced into entering a pact with another party, the Democratic Unionist Party, of Northern Ireland, in a "supply and confidence" deal which the Government then, literally, paid for with an extra £1 billion in funding for NI.

So, whenever there was a confidence vote for the Government, the DUP would support the Government, and over the passing months and years, have enabled the Government to win many narrow votes in The House.

Now Parliament is suspended for 5 weeks, and will not return until October 14th, by which time there will be three weeks to Brexit and here will be a similar life in this Parliament too.

An election soon after November 1st is now inevitable.

But the Government is looking again at the backstop, and is considering asking the EU to change it back to NI applicable only.

The DUP will not agree to this, but the DUP's support is no longer needed, as Johnson removed the whip from 21 Tory MPs, he no longer has a majority to protect.

So, the PM will ask to change the backstop back, but then will have to get this ratified through Parliament my the 31st October, and pass all applicable Brexit related legislation too.

He does not have the numbers for that.

So, Northern Ireland will be dropped onto the Brexit pyre too.

However, for NO that will be a good thing, but may also be the trigger for an independence vote under the terms of the GFA.

If Johnson forces the UK out of the EU with no deal, the Scotland will push and get a second indyref. Mealy words of support for Scotland from English politicians will fall on stony ground this time.

So, the union of the United Kingdom to come to an end.

The UK diminished on the European and world stage.

And the structures and processes of the constitution trampled underfoot.

All to make the rest of us much, much poorer. Forever.