Brexit woes

The Guardian asked two departments basically the same question, one relating to fuel and the other to food: does the UK keep strategic reserves?

The good news is that it does keep a reserve of 90 days of fuel.

But food, no need as the UK has “highly resilient food supply chain."

Until January 1st, of course.

Government risk assessments show there will not be an overall shortage of food in the UK after January 1st. When asked to see the risk assessments, turns out there is just one; the reasonable worst case one. Between 20 and 40% of freight could be reduced.

However the National Audit Office’s report calls the UK Government’s arrangements to be “inherently complex, high risk and very challenging”.

And there is no warehouse capacity to store food, as much is taken with either PPE or Christmas stock that has not been sent out due to the second lockdown. It is estimated that there is less than 3% spare capacity in the system.

The UK imports 62% of its fresh food, mainly from the EU, and so this will be the most obvious first casualty, with items like onions, tomatoes and salad crops being the initial casualties. Such foods, if available, will see prices soar meaning the poorest will not be able to afford a healthy diet.

Also in the Guardian, it is reported that the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium has requested that the NI Protocol be delayed as there has been no engagement from the Joint Committee (JC) so businesses and farmers just are not ready.

Remember the transition period, which should have lasted 21 months after the original political Brexit date was not extended as the A50 was moved from March 2019 to January 2020, leaving just 11 months to get everything in place. The original 21 months was ambitious, but this is just lunacy.

But then so is Brexit.

A lot of people assume Brexit has happened, or will happen and then we move on. The PM seems to think that after January 1st we can all just move on once Brexit is Done. But of course, Brexit is not just one or two events, but a process. And a process that will never end as rules and regulations change and talks will take place to discuss how the UK will comply. Political and economic Brexits are gates that the process went through, as was the beginning and end of the A50 process. Brexit is not just for Christmas, it is forever, and we will be paying the bills for generations.

There is talk of another extension period, though not called that, starting on January 1st, that would mean an agreement of some kind. A “mixed” deal would require that anyway, if things like aviation and crime cooperation are to be included. Which means that a possible economic Brexit might not be until seven years after the referendum, and that’s if the UK is ready then, maybe another period begins, and by that point we forgot why it was we wanted to leave in the first place. With news that all areas of the UK now “regret” Brexit, for how long could the Government proceed with a policy so unpopular? To keep the Party together? Any kind of Brexit, deal or no deal, will be branded a betrayal by the ERG, Nigel and most Brexiteers.

No easy answers, no easy solutions, just consequences, all will be bad, just which one will Johnson decide he can live with, I think all will end his leadership of the Party, a job he always wanted and yet is so unsuited for.