Monday 23 November 2020

Why are we waiting?

For two weeks now, a trade deal between the UK and EU has been 95% done.

So what is the hold up?

Well, in the end, Johnson has to decide whether to betray his backbenchers or business.

Brexiteers have never been satisfied with what has been offered, and soon will always demand more and more, which is why it is now Government policy to break international law, and whatever domestic law gets in their way in relation to Brexit.

In short, this is bat shit crazy, and although it would be nice to see a return to rational politics, the chances, as I see it, are slim.

Balancing whether it is better to keep his party together for another few months or shaft industry doesn’t seem much a choice. But then Johnson finds it hard to make a choice.

If no deal is the result of not making a choice, then it is the most likely outcome. But then no deal would not be a the final state, as trade would have to continue, and talks would soon start up on how to return things to something close to normal. With the exception of the UK being a “stressed” negotiator and needing a deal to be done. The UK would have little choice than to accept whatever is offered by the EU, but then that was always the case. Dress it up however you want, the larger party with most leverage gets to decide terms and it is up to the smaller side whether to accept or not.

And this will not change. Not with the EU or with other potential trading partners.

Much was made this weekend that Liz Truss had negotiated a continuation deal with Canada. Or in other words, things staying the same, not getting better for the UK, just what we have as an EU member. This is actually a good result for Truss, who doesn’t strike as being the sharpest knife in the drawer, but her and her team has managed to not get a worse deal than we had as a member state, unlike with Japan.

If there is a no deal, and things go bad in January, then what kind of deal will the EU offer? Well, one that includes what are the sticking points now: fishing, level playing field and mediation. For starters. If the UK is lucky, then it will be just that. But in the world of international trade, it is each bloc and country for themselves, and if the EU can get extra concessions, then why wouldn’t they?

I find it hard to believe there is no Brexit news on the front pages, instead full of Royal dogs, Princess Diana and saving Christmas.

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