One month to go

Just a reminder as to where we are:

Political Brexit happened on 31st January 2020. At midnight on that day, the UK was no longer an EU member state by automatic operation of (international) law.

An transition period then begun, which was for the UK and EU to agree "everything else".

But because the A50 period was extended and extended, this took away from the 22 months of the transition period, meaning that the same issued had to be agreed and ratified in half the time.

The WA and PD outlined the legal and general agreement framework of that WA period. The WA was legally binding under international law, the PD although not legally binding, was a show of good faith.

The UK, in bringing forward the WAB, showed the EU that it was prepared to break international and domestic law. Renaging on what had been agreed and breaking the terms of the WA.

The IMB is still with Parliament, and there can be no agreement whilst it is a live issue. The EU will seek stronger legal measures to ensure compliance because of the IMB, and which is wht level play fields and governence are such difficult issues, as, quite rightly, the EU does not trust the UK Government to keep its word and obey international law.

But hey.

Despite what was promised during the referendum by Vote Leave, May decided that Brexit meant eaving the SM and CU. This mandates a hard border. Denying it for years didn't change the fact it was needed. Maybe starting preparations based on this would have admitted that "project fear" was real after all, so live in denial and do last minute preparations.

The UK could, until the end of July, extended the tranistion period by a year. But refused.

Even though it was likely that a second, and maybe third wave, of COVID would be happening at the same time, now Ministers complain about the timeline.

The EU has been preparing for years, lorry parks in Calais, vets and so on ready to sring into action, and their software programs have gone through development, testing and were operationally tested last week. All good. The UK's lorry park in Ashford floods when it rains hard. And is not complete. The UK's software has yet to reach beta testing.

Ratification of trade deals usually take 6 months, they can be done quicker by the EU, but the quickest ever, if replicated, would be done in February. We have 32 days.

Until there is a trade deal, there is no deal on anything else: no crime cooperation, nothing on visas, car insurance, whether UK registered and maintained planes can fly. Nothing. So, not much riding on it, then?

January 1st 2021 will not be the end of Brexit, meerly the end of the beginning. Deal or no deal, the UK and EU will be talking, negotiating, well, forever, as rules and governance changes. Oh what joy.

And we will have to trade with the EU, and will have to accept their terms, accpt them as a prerquisite of any future talks starting.

But hey, I remember food, fuel, medicine shortages being written on the side of the big red bus, don't you?

I saw a post from a Brexiteer, asking how did Brexit end up costing so much when it was supposed to be the easiest deal in histroy, have no downside, etc, etc, chiz, chiz. All good questions, and one to pose to Johnson, Gove, DD, Raab et al, as they have negotiated us into imposing economic canction on ourselves, in the name of soverignty, sovereignty that the bill giving permission to the A50 notification said Westminster always had.

2020 has been shit.

2021 will be worse, all of this and Brexit.