The lag is the thing

The maths of pandemics is quite simple.

infections run one to two weeks behind current levels, meaning any change now will take weeks to show effect.

And hospitalisations lag a month behind infections, so the delay of any effect is amplified.

So, any action MUST be taken before it becomes critical that action needs to be taken.

Meaning that Johnson's delay of six weeks in forcing a lockdown on England after SAGE recommended it in the middle of September will cause a lot of extra infections, hospitalisations and deaths. The delay of two weeks in March cost 20,000 people an early death.

To make the same mistake a second time seems almost deliberate.

Rates will climb and climb, and maybe at the end of the week we might see some levelling off, but those who will die in November already had the disease in October, when Johnson delayed.

He met with at least one MP on Thursday, in person, without masks, yet kept 2m distance. However, this goes against Government advice and how important could a meeting with a backbencher be not to take place via Zoom or Teams?

This is simple basic stuff, something that Johnson could have done to save countless lives. But he has to deal with the headbangers in his own party and Government so has to tread carefully else there could be a coup against him. And party politics trumps public health every time, apparently.

Meanwhile, police have been called to an Ikea in Manchester to deal with disorder at the click and collect point becasue a new toilet roll holder is essential.

Apparently.