A little prediction

Here it is: The UK Government and Parliament will totally waste the extra 5 months the A50 extension is going to give it.

First thing, Parliament will take two weeks off for Easter.

At the same time, all no deal preparations are being wound down, the contraflow on the M20 will be removed, though the metal barrier on the Lonon-bound carriageway will remain.

All political pressure to come up with an alternative plan will have melted away.

Talks between Labour and the Government will never reach agreement, not that they ever would, but without no deal pressure, nothing will be done.

There will be pressure to remve May as PM, but under Tory party rules, backbenchers can only launch a vote of no confidence once a year; she is safe from another one until December.

If Labour launch a vote of no confidence, and win, Corbyn will have two weeks to try and form a Government. It is unlikely he will have the support to do that, so there would be an election. And it is very unlikely that an election would solve anything.

Even if there was a new PM, even Johnson or Gove of Raab, the numbers in Parliamant would not change unless there was an election. There is no majority in Parliament for no deal, and the Houses can pass legislation in two or three days blocking the Government taking that course of action.

In fact there are just 73 days between now and the end of October on which Parliament actually sits. 73 working days unless recesses are abolished, and they already are on their Easter one, off for some last winter skiing in expensive part of the EU or another.

So, at the end of the 3rd week of July, Parliament goes on recess into September, at which point UK politics go straight into four weeks of party conferences.

So that will bring us to the end of September and Brexit will be a month away and the panic levels will rise like an erupting volcano.

And by then, the choices will be the same as they were at the start of this week:

The WA

No Deal

No Brexit.

The UK could ask for another extension, if it could think of a reason. Or more likely the EU might start adding all sorts of conditions, just before the next intake of EU Commissioners are elected. Might the EU deny the UK its commissioner? Possibly.

No Deal Brexit would be OK for a few hours. Then after three days when the fresh food starts to run out, the UK would sue for talks, but the EU would put up three pre-conditions for talks:

Financial settlement

Citizen's rights

The Irish backstop.

So have the backstop as part of the WA or as part of no deal. The choice is up to us.

This is the reality of taking back control. It always was, and always will be.