Saturday, 6 April 2019

Sunday Brexit

Some Brexiteers, like Geoffrey Cox QC, are now admitting that unpicking 45 years of legal and trade integration between the UK and EU is much more difficult than he thought and not something to be attempted at speed. Almost like he wasn't listening for the last three years.

But it is a start.

But again, time is very short, the UK is due to leave the EU in FIVE days time unless something extraordinary happens.

May has asked for a delay of A50 to the end of June, with the UK not taking part in EU elections. This would make that date a hardest of cliffedges, as without EU MEPs, the UK could not extend A50 any further.

It is also possible that from a legal point of view, A50 cannot be extended beyond 22nd May without elections, as a European Parliament elected by the EU27 might be seen as being illegally constituted, and the EU Council and any votes it make open to a legal challenge.

On top of this, the EU are very wary of extending A50 without a clear idea of what the UK, or May, would do with that. If its just more of the same, then they might just say "non", "nien".

As a counter offer, the EU might say the UK can't have an extension to end of June, but can have one for a year as long as the UK takes part in EU elections. Thus forcing May and her Government to confront its own internal conflicts and come up with a plan that is acceptable to the rest of the party and Parliament, if that is possible.

This week is going to be fraught, with the reality that Brexit has to happen this week. Unless May, Corbyn can come together. Impossible to see, as despite claiming that compromise needs to be found between them, all the compromise has to come from the other side, as has been the case with the EU too in the past six months.

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