Monday 8 April 2019

Things are happening, but....

Last night the Lords and Commons passed the Cooper Amendment and it received Royal accent, meaning the PM has to ask the EU for an extension to end of June.

The media and Twittersphere was full of headlines that Parliament had taken no deal off the table.

It hasn't.

No deal can only be ruled out by choosing an alternative course: the WA or no Brexit. No deal is the default even if a lengthy extension is requested and agreed.

Brexit is a matter of international law primarily, Parliament could decide and vote to make no deal illegal, doesn't in itself stop it happening.

That the Government is now planning for EU elections means that a longer extension is possible, if the EU27 agree, unanimously, that would happen on Thursday, leaving Parliament in a race against time to change domestic legislation on Friday so the European Communities Act 1972 is not repealed by automatic operation of domestic law.

The Brexit landscape is changing, but slowly, and because the cliff edge is nearly upon is. But the reality is, nothing has changed in the WA and political declaration agreed between the UK and EU since November. 6 months has passed, and Brexit is no different, all discussions have been domestic. The EU is just waiting for the UK to make up its mind what it wants.

This is the reality.

And the EU27 could deny an extension as there is no real purpose for it other than to give UK politics more time to argue. They might decide, of just one country decides to call time on Brexit now. And the UK would have 24 hours to decide to have no deal or no Brexit.

The UK is now relying on Ireland and France, mainly, to decide its immediate future. Doesn't sound or feel much like taking back control to me.

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