COVID: One year on

Let's see how accurate my words were a year ago this week.

MONDAY, 16 MARCH 2020

The link

I have seen a couple of the friends and/or colleagues share memes on FB that state that the coronavirus is a put up job, and that 45,000 people survived the virus, so there is nothing to worry about.

Both were Leavers in Brexit, so I am hoping there is not a link.

There isn't currently a link between the virus and immigration, but due to our own stupid faults and dim as fuck PM, the UK did not ask to sit in the the EU's pandemic meeting over the weekend.

And since we're on the subject of de Piffel, he has been barely seen since last week, with different ministers coming out with different claims or courses of action. This alone creates confusion. Confusion creates panic, and panic creates panic buying.

Lastnight a report by Health England revealed that they expect there to be 7,900,000 people needing hospitalisation over the next year, the length of time they expect the crisis to last.

7.9 million inpatients spread over 52 weeks reveal that there would need to be 151,923 admissions a week.

There are 4,000 IC beds in all of the UK. We seem to be 147,900 short.

Mishandling of the crisis in its early stages will make it last longer and will be more severe.

Elsewhere, Ireland has closed all its bars and pubs. Two days before St Patrick's Day. All bar the most essential shops and places to eat in France are to close. And in New York, Los Angeles and Las vegas, all bars and restarants are to close there too, with many of the MGM casinos in vegas to close from Tuesday.

It is likely the railway francise system will collapse in weeks if not days due to loss of revenue, and they will either be brought under the control of the government or run on management contracts.

This is the start.

Fatalities in Italy are still accelerating day by day. We're two weeks behind, and nowhere near as good at testing and restricting un-neccessary contact.

WEDNESDAY, 18 MARCH 2020

Here we are again

In the churchyard of St Martin of Tours, Guston near Dover, there is a row of about ten graves. Each one contains the remains of a cadet from the nearby Duke of Yorks Military Acadamy, the all died just before the First World War from a flu outbreak. None was older than 15.

Just after the War, there was the "Spanish Flu" epidemic that killed approx one quarter to the earth's population. No one can be sure of how many died between 1918 and 19, but more people died of that than were killed in the war that had industialised death. Troops returning home from the Western Front carried the virus to all corners of the globe, bringing death. And sometimes very high mortaility rates. Some indiginous communities saw a mortaility rate of 75%, as did pregant women. The second wave had mutated so was much more harmful to young and healthy people, creating an auto-immune reaction.

Spanish Flu swept round the world in three waves, there is no telling what will happen to the current Covid-19 virus, whether it will just melt away with the appearance of Spring, or will mutate or hybridise with another virus and come back different and stronger.

What we do know is that the current situation was all to predicatable. We knew it would happen, just not when. Bill gates warned in 2015 in a TED Talk, and the NHS held an exercise in 2016 that highlighted lack of Personal Proctective Equipment (PPE) and ventilators. Under Jeremy Hunt as Health Minister, nothing was done to implement these lessons learned.

The modern world with jet travel, hub airports and our ever-crowded lives mean that a pandemic was always going to happen. It was a case of just when.

So, international travellers went from where the virus emerged, maybe China maybe not, took it on their planes, left it at the hub airports and took it all the way home to share with their friends and families.

Here in the UK, a decade long deliberate underfunding of the NHS and health care means that the NHS is even less prepared for the pandemic than it would have been. How fucking shameful to hear the former Helth Minister asking where the PPE were for the NHS, he stood idly by while the NHS was asset stripped.

And so the Government try to get a ahead of the curve, after spending a week working on tackling the wrong virus, so now the lockdowns and restrictions will increase.

As will the power grabs. Because, like all good proto-facists Johnson is using the virus to pass emergency laws to give Ministers and him yet more unaccountable power, for two years. There are already emergency powers, and when used are reviewed every 28 days. No matter how bad things are, do we really want to give this Poundland Churchill and his ragtag group of incompitents almost unlimited power for two years?

Scottish and Welsh schools are to close by the end of the week, but English ones probably won't. Legal cases lasting less than three days will still go ahead, but longer ones won't, because if its the one thing we have learned is the visrus needs four days or more to infect people.

A Brexit executed by morons is bad enough, but a viral pandemic?

FRIDAY, 20 MARCH 2020

The calm

In terms of infections and moralities, the UK is two weeks behind Italy, which means by Easter we might be digging something like plague pits. The country, of parts of it are in denial about what is coming. But that's the thing with reality, it never disappoints.

Tim Martin, who owns and runs 900 pubs in the UK said that closing pubs wasn't a good idea and an over reaction. And yet Government advice is to avoid them.

More Government advice is to work from home if you can. Wetherspoons workers are not allowed to wear masks or gloves, nor can they work from home. Maybe Tim is thinking of himself here? Quite why the BBC thought to ask his views rather, than say, a immunologist is beyond me.

Still more Brexteers, including Mr Martin thinks Brexit should be accelerated under the circumstances, as in his view, the UK holds all the cards.

Yes, he's right. And they're all Death.

SATURDAY, 21 MARCH 2020

The end of days

Last night, at just gone five in the evening, the Chancellor nationalised the entire country.

Those words were not mentioned, but the Government agreed to underwrite 80% of just about everyone's wages, so people would not have to worry about being sacked and not being able to meet their rent payment, mortgage payments can already be suspended by three months.

The Bank of England will pump up to £330 billion into the economy, no news on where the money was coming from, who would lend it, or anything. Interest rates had already been cut to 0.1%. Another historical low.

And all pubs, clubs, libraries, restaurants, gyms, sports centres were to close by midnight.

The country is in lockdown.

Church services had already been suspended from this weekend.

There is little else other than the virus to report on, as there is little else now going on.

It is still maybe ten weeks to the peak of the outbreak, depending on how successful these measures are. Even if they do work, then for the next year they might have to be reintroduced to prevent new peaks in cases and fatalities climbing.

All the above measures were necessary, but had they been introduced by a Labour PM there would have been a huge outcry from the press and Tories in general.

We have no idea what the country, the world will look like that the end of this. Many things we are used to will be gone, or changed.

Maybe we will value all workers, not just hedge fund managers and investment bankers. It don't matter how much many you earn, you can't buy shit of the drivers don't deliver and staff stock shelves in supermarkets. And as for those who work in the NHS, a national treasure that for ideological and dogmatic reasons has been starved of funds and staff for a decade, well, I hope those guilty of these crimes hang their heads in shame.

The US will find out what happens when a pandemic strikes a society with mainly private health care. Let us in the UK watch and learn. Health care should not be a privilege of the rich, or a perk from a job making it impossible for you to resign. That was the whole point of the NHS, but both the Tories and Labour have been selling bits of it off from under our noses.

SUNDAY, 22 MARCH 2020

Sunday Brexit/virus

The Sunday Times, the once great paper of record, published a story today saying the "herd immunity" plan was Dominic Cumming's, and when pointed out the drawbacks, i.e. lots of deaths, he replied, apparently, so a lot of old people die? Meaning that the economy was to be saved no matter what.

Now, I would like to believe this story, but that we have witnessed the Times and Sunday Times go back on all their principles to back Brexit over reality. I find it amazing that because it is now reporting something they want to believe, they will.

The story might or not be true. The effects of that plan will be thousands of extra deaths over the next few weeks and months, even if there is a total lockdown now, it is too late.

Yesterday, there was a queue of traffic getting into Whitstable, as people saw the first day of schools closing as an excuse to go to the seaside. The Oyster House had a "take out" counter, but people just took their drinks and sat next to each other on the nearby sea wall.

People also went in record numbers to National Trust parks and gardens, so they are now closed, and Snowdon National Park had their busiest ever day, in the middle of a pandemic.

People are just stupid, and lead my a liar, so should we be surprised that the muddled message isn't getting through?

Reality will bite, and by Easter there will be no doubt.

And Ministers want to push ahead with Brexit. As supply chains collapse under the stain. So why not, finish the job that the virus started?

Have a nice day, now.

MONDAY, 23 MARCH 2020

They're not listening

So, on Friday it seemed that Johnson and his Nudge Team began to take the virus seriously.

But took a step back from formally closing shops, parks, take aways and so on.

Pubs closed their doors at midnight Friday, and for the weekend the public were warned about social distancing and only go out when needed and if you do, keep your distance. Then, as I blogged yesterday, with the sunny warm weather, most people treated it like a bank holiday and went out to visit the seaside, national parks and so on.

As a rusult, hundreds, maybe thousands of extra people will get sick and die because of these actions.

We saw in the US five students from one university test positive for the isrus upon their return from Spring Break.

From this evening, alll McDonalds and Nandos are to close. Period. I expect more chains to follow. Social media shaming yesterday meant Waterstones closed their high street stores to customers, but will take orders over the phone and online.

This has been the story all through this so far, the Government lagging behind actual events and businesses closing down to protect their workers or the public. And yet Fleet Street like to make out Johnson is doing a good job. When the message gets so garbled with each passing press conference.

And with each passing day, the end of the transition period gets closer and nothing is in place. 50,000 customs officers are to be sourced, but how can that happen if meetings are cancelled. Who will build their offices, develop the software systems, build their offices? And how will businesses prepare when it is all they can do now to keep going.

If nothing else comes from this, its that the lorry drivers, shelf fillers, fast food workers will be seen to contribute great value to the economy, without them, we resort to fighting over toilet rolls.

Power to the people....

Our economic system was already broken. The foundation of it, the paying of interest for savings and the charging of a slightly larger rate for borrowers has been the foundation of the economy for centuries. Pay 6% interest to savers, 7% to borrowers and banks pocket the difference. But interest rates have been below 1% since 2008, they had climbed to 0.75% in the last 18 months, but in another emergency measure, the BoE cut them to 0.1%. Everyone will borrow, not clear from where and who will pay.

In effect, our economy has been nationalised, normal economic rules and science no longer apply. These are extraordinary time for sure, but how will we ever get back to normal as we will be addicted to the state paying 80% of our wages, lots of leisure time to spend it. Interest rates never got close to normal after 2008, how will things ever get back to normal now when few are creating value?

Not a critism, just asking.

TUESDAY, 24 MARCH 2020

The big announcement

I mean I could have written this as part of the usually daily blog, but I thought its not often an entire country gets shut down.

Mind you, we're not the only ones doing this, but it is worth pointing out that other countries, like Denmark, have not gone down the lockdown route because they were better prepared, there has been less panic buying.

So, when news came just before five that the dail "presser" was being delayed until half eight when a national broadcast would be made, it was obvious what was coming.

Even still, to see it written down in black and white, or in Tweets, seeing the reality of it, that for three weeks there will be no non-urgent travel, meetings of more than two people, all non key work to stop and people to stay at home.

These are days we thought we would never see, and yet it was clear that they would come, one day.

Pandemics happen, and have been known before. A virus jumps from one species to human and for us there is no immunity, and it rips around the world thanks to global travel through hub airports in a matter of hours.

It seems only politicans, those tasked with ensuring protection and preparedness were caught sleeping, and our brave leader, Alexander Boris de Piffel Johnson has been behind the curve from the start. And has gone from joking about shaking everyone's hand in a hospital with those infected to locking down the country in 14 days. Not bad.

And make no mistake, the lockdown isn't just because people ignored advice, but it because that advice was fudged and not clear, and for a week the Government prepared the country for the wrong virus.

But yes, Boris is doing a grand job.

It will take ten days to see if the lockdown works, and in those ten days death rates will double about every two days, and our health service will buckle under the strain, but they will do their best.

The plice can arrest those of breaking the lockdown, but the Tories spent a decade cutting numbers and morale as they did with nurses, doctors, teachers and fire service. All cut down to bare bones with no flexibility when the shit hits the fan.

But I'm sure it's not the Tories fault, it must be Labour's, or the EU's or the union's fault.