COVID: One year on

26th March 2020

And here is the first in a series of reminders that as far as COVID-19 is concerned, we have not yet reached the peak of the outbreak. In fact the is the very start of the steep slope upwards in graphs recording infections and deaths.

No one knows how long the virus will spread through the global population. But we can be sure that the UK will not have beaten it after 21 days of lockdown or the US can go back to normal on Easter Sunday. You could go back to normal, but kill many more thousands of people.

We do not know if summer will slow the spread. In China and Korea, it is warmer than here and that did not slow the virus down. Nor that there won't be further and more significant waves of infections later in this year or into next.

Nothing is known, nothing can be said now that could indicate when the current measures, or even more draconian ones, could be relaxed.

Nor has the virus mutated for many months, or hybridised with another virus. It might, or it might not.

We do not know.

But until there is a vaccine, some or all of the measures, or worse, will be in effect or be being held in reserve as the infection rates climb again.

This will be a long fight.

THURSDAY, 26 MARCH 2020

Boredom

Life in the military was once described as long periods of boredom interspersed with brief periods of excitement. But that can really describe life in general.

Having been in the military, deep sea survey industry, wind industry among others, yes there were exciting things, but a whole load of dull too.

In the RAF we used to see the long dull hours by playing cards. Hunt (chase the Lady), Nom and Bridge. At Laarbruch there were up to four bridge schools at lunch time, now its impossible to find one other person who can play. But two of you is no good, you need four.

And there was Uckers. Uckers is a Navy game, Ludo with attitude. Every section on an RAF base would have an Uckers board, and their own rules too. At Marham we had different rules for each day of the week, and rules for exercises so a game could last 12 hours when we should have been building bombs or something.

And there was drinking too.

Lots of drinking.

So, with all the above, there wasn't any real boredom. As we would be doing one of these, or working. But mostly one of the above.

Times change, and once I was in the survey industry, we all had laptops, so would swap pendrives for video parties, passing box sets from one to another.

And so one eight week job off the coast of Norway one winter, we watched the last 5 series of The Sopranos, including one day where we did a 20 hour session in the crew room with no breaks.

So with thanks to Tony Soprano and Sim City, I got through those long dark days waiting on weather.

The 1970s were a decade of boredom.

Looking at the back pages of the latest Superman or Silver Surfer comics to see the endless great TV that was on in the US, and we had less than 12 hours a day, there was no "entertaining TV until midday when ITV would put Rainbow or Pitkins on, but then it was news and then Crown Court and then House Party and the Old Country.

If you were lucky kids TV started at four, but ended less than two hours later.

And then there was the three day week, power cuts and brown outs, where there was nothing.

And I don't think we were really bored. Really.

So, asking people to stay inside for 21 days, only go out for urgent tasks is not too much to ask, even if it is sunny and there are orchids and butterflies.

We have the i player, the internet, Kindles i phones and all the rest, we should never be bored. All to stop our friends and neighbours from getting sick. We can do this, no?

FRIDAY, 27 MARCH 2020

A sense of perspective

Back at the end of 2005, early 2006, having left the RAF, I was living the life of an international playboy, one that was happy living in a mid-terraced house in Oulton Broad. But I had money in the bank, tasks to do; writing, taking photos, listening to the radio, and so on. So one month drifted into the next and all was fine and dandy.

But with no money coming in and the mortgage and bills ging out month after month, something had to give. And it did.

In the early summer, I can out of money, no money to pay the mortgage, and so far in debt they wouldn't help me.

Mum did.

She paid two months of mortgage, bought me some shopping and in the meantime I found a job delivering chemicals, not the best job, but a job and it just about paid my bills.

The point here is that when threatened to lose your home and all you have, things like football and other sport are unimportant. Which is why if you read some of my early posts I talk a lot about 22 men kicking a bag of wind about, because, that's what football is. Why it matter so much to fans is the be there, or to share in the magic moments.

It has been two weeks since football was suspended, three weeks since Norwich won that penalty shootout at Spurs, but already the pain of missing it all is fading.

I am used to there being no football. I don't really miss it that much now, its the new normal. I'm sure there are others for whom it is like losing a friend, but, in the cosmic scale of things, football, and footballers, don't matter that much. Same for pop stars, rugby players and the rest of society that has a skill others are only to happy to pay them a king's ransome for. And at the same time, we have seen how those we take for granted; nurses, doctors, delivery drivers, shelf fillers, postmen and women, people in the care industry just get on with their jobs, for the same crappy money they have always done, and yet it is these, for superstar footballers and commentors that are keeping the country together, eating and moving.

I only hope we remember this when all this chaos is over, that people the Government themselves saw little value in when it came to immigration policy, or a decade of cutbacks and 1% payrises for nurses, we pay people for what they have done. Rather than the very people resposible for austerity and running down the NHS, setting it up for failure, and yet are photographed clapping in support of our nation's carers last night. A few months ago they same people were clapping and waving order papers when they imposed another year of 1% payrises on nurses.

We must never, ever forget those who did great stuff in these days, and those who tried to con and spin things.

I will go back to watching football, and cheer when Norwich win, and be miserable when we lose. But it no longer defines my life. And it hasn't for a long while now.

FRIDAY, 27 MARCH 2020

Fatal dogma

Yesterday, it emerged that the UK had failed to take up an offer from the EU to participate in the first four rounds of emergency ventilator procurement.

Initially a spokesperson for "Number 10" said it was because the UK had left the EU.

But during the transition the EU would treat the UK as if it were still a member.

A few hours later another spokesperson said the e mails had arrived in the wrong folder and had been missed, but the UK would think seriously about participating in the next round.

I mean, what next, the dog ate the invite?

And later still, video of Health Secretary on last week's Question Time saying the invite had been received and the Government were going to take up the offer.

This morning the Financial Times carried a report rubbishing all of the above.

The UK Government refusing aid because of what, dogma? Not accepting aid from the EU?

Now both the PM and the Health Secretary both have been confirmed as having "mild" cases of the virus. It would be easy to wish them ill, but I won't. I hope they get better really quickly, and no other ministers fall ill, lest Chris Grayling is left in charge.

Just when you think things can't get any worse, Johnson and his Ministers would rather people die than accept help from the EU. That's the long and short of it.

Bastards.

SATURDAY, 28 MARCH 2020

The new normal

Four weeks ago, on the last day of February, we went and bought a new car.

After selecting the beast, we then went on a drove to Crundale and Boughton Aluph churches before ending up at Challock to look for toothwort.

Then we came home, had lunch and I got ready for some serious football listening.

It was Jen's birthday, we went to hers to have a Chinese meal together and swap news.

It was a very good day.

Four weeks later, the whole country is pretty much under house arrest, as the initially mocked and downplayed virus (by the PM) has swept up and down the country, and now he, the Health Minister have tested positive, and the UK's chief medical officer is self isolating after the three of them, and the rest of Cabinet apparently, failed to take their own advice.

Both Johnson and Hancock were not overly ill and yet obtained testig that showed them to be infected shows how class has defined the virus as much as the rest of life:

The rich can pay and get testing whether they are displaying symptoms or not, get tested.

The white collar middle classes (like me) work from home if possible,

And the blue collar workers have to carry on, mostly without testing and protective equipment.

Testing for NHS staff, and only those showing symptoms, begins this weekend. Johnson, Hancock and Prince Charles get tested because, well, why'd you think?

So, we will stay at home and read, listen to music, watch The Expanse, and time will slip through our fingers. I am tempted to drive to a wood and look for orchids, but will resist.

SUNDAY, 29 MARCH 2020 The science never changed

History is written by the winners. Or those in power.

And according to Yes, Prime Minister you only have an inquiry to get the answer you want.

I say this because, contrary to what the Mail, Express and Torygraph might say, the current crisis can be laid at the door of Number 10.

For over a week Johnosn and his "Nudge Squad" perused the herd immunity plan as they they had modelled the wrong disease; viral pneumonia instead of VONVID-19. The BMA, WHO among others told Johnson and the UK Government they were wrong, but the course remained unchanged for two more days.

And then they realised their mistake, 250,000 additional deaths were possible, so journalists were briefed that the science had changed so tactics were changed.

This was not true then.

Important days were wasted, as was all of February when warnings were coming in from China and Italy about how bad things were going to get, and nothing was done. Sports carried on taking place, bars and restaurants remained open, and the PM carried on claiming it was all under control, shaking hands. The country will not get those wasted days and weeks back, and so this is where we are now.

The Torygraph has on its front page that the "NHS failed pandemic tests four years ago". This is not quite true, the NHS ran an exercise, found there were failings and shortages, wrote a report, sent it to Government who then did nothing. Exercises are important to highlight gaps, but those gaps need closing. Closing gaps at a time when central Government is slashing funding is impossible.

Johnson was part of successive Governments that signed off on spending cuts, wage freezes and scrapping nurses' bursaries.

But blame the NHS.

Blame China for it, but China did warn the rest of the world, after a slow start, but they did warn us, that those warnings were ignored is not China's fault.

Michael Barnier test positive for the virus, now the Mail is accusing his of infecting the "stricken" PM.

FFS

MONDAY, 30 MARCH 2020

House arrest

The whole country is under efective house arrest. The right to travel, work, be self employed or even worship has been suspended.

These restrictions have been brought under the implementation of a Statutory Instrument (SI), which means it has had no Parliamentary scrutiny. And the powers it gives the police could easily be mis-used, and evidence is already there that such powers have been abused.

The police are stopping people and turning them round, or issuing proceedings against members of the public if people are just going out for a drive, or if, in the police's view, the item being sourced is not essential.

The SI itself falls under public health law, and in such the police should only step in if there is an actual breach in the SI itself, or a danger to public health, not use the SI to restrict people's movement.

If the law is not applied correctly, it will be discredited and then ignored, and where will be then?

Members of the public are now watching neighbours and snitching on them on social media for any imagined transgressions, un-necessary journeys or gatherings.

Giving the police these powers without defined boundaries mean some will operate in a more draconian way than others.

People should be able to drive to take a walk or exercise their dogs or their families; what about those who live in flats and/or without suitable nearby spaces for exercise?

We should know by the end of the week if the social distancing measures are having any effect, if there is no such evidence, the people will be far less likely to obey current or future restrictions on their liberty.

It should be pointed out that this point, that social distancing on its own probably won't work, mass testing needs to be done, and as yet is failing even the most basic targets set by Matt Hancock.

TUESDAY, 31 MARCH 2020

The designated survivor

Last week Johnson, Hancock, the UK's chief medical officer and Dominic Cummings (AKA the Big Brain) were all tested positive for COVID-19.

Johnson was given the "all clear" after some three days in isolation. I thought that should have been 14, what with a baby on the way and all?

Last night it was up to the UK Government's "designated survivor", Dominic Raab, to lead the country in the daily virus update.

Its not clear what role the designated survivor has in Cabinet/Government, not important I suspect as it has been given to the main appointed as Minister for Brexit and only then discovered that Dover was important for trade to the EU and was near to France.

Anyway, he repeated that the public and whole country should follow the Government's guidelines, all the time licking his fingers, showing that such rules do not apply to designated survivors, as he has a shield of protection.

And this brings me to a larger political problem. Bear with me.

In Brown's Government, the Minister for Transport was (Lord) Andrew Adonis, who knew a thing or two about transport and railways in particular, and was able to start projects to cascade trains from areas where they were not needed to where they were.

Since then, and to be honest for most of the time, Ministers are appointed with little or no apparent knowledge of the departments they front.

How is this even possible?

I mean, to be, say, Minister for Justice without having a legal background, other than watching Crown Court back in the 70s with nanny. Being appointed for Minister for International Trade without understanding how the WTO works and that for many countries with deal with the EU tied into FTA that cannot be bettered for any other country, not even the UK. Or that trade is mostly dependant on distance and geography.

Let's not mince words here, Johnson and co have bodged Brexit in the most appalling way possible, there is nothing to show they ever had a plan or knew what they are doing. And now they are in charge of protecting the country from a global pandemic.

They fucked up Brexit, which was always a shitty idea, but could have been made to kinda work, with minimum damage to the economy. And now they have to understand science, as told to them by experts and make decisions that dictate whether hundreds or hundreds of thousands will die.

I think we know how this is going to end, sadly.