Salami issues

The UK is attempting to undermind the WA which includes the NIP, a bit at a time. Or a slice at a time. Which gives the EU the issue of where to draw the line and start legal proceedings?

In an episode of Yes, Prime Minister, Sir Humphry explains to a confused PM how a Russian violation of the border in Germany initially for humanitarian reason could be excused, and something else and something else, before the Russian forces are in Bonn and drinking vodka.

So it is with repeated violations of the WA and NIP, each breach is not bad in itself, but without reaction the UK would keep chipping away.

Act too early and it seems like an over-reaction, act too late and too much has been given away.

The WA and TCA were agreed on the assumption that both sides would act in good faith to maintain what had been agreed. Of course, it is likely that Johnson agreed both with every intention, if not breaking them, then pushing what was allowed or acceptable, the very definition really of bad faith.

Indeed, the "C" in TCA is co-operation, meaning that both sides should be, well, co-operating. But even before January 1st, trust in the UK from the EU was already low, and what has happened since then has lowered that even further. In each of the three months since the start of the year, the UK has signalled its intent to break international law, while the EU made a (serious) procedual error on Friday evening, which was never acted upon and withdrawn after four hours.

In the end, the UK HAS to trade with the EU, no amount of deals with the US or Australia or anywhere could make up the lack of meaningful trade with our nearest and wealthist neighbours. A trade deal, even a comprehensive one with the US will only have marginal benfits to the UK's balance of trade, and would need several such deals to begin to compensate for the loss of EU trade.

And remember, if the UK damages the GFA or does anything to affect socienty, trade or politics in or on Ireland, there will be no deal with the US, it will be vetoed by Congress, and that was true even when Trump was President, now even more so with Biden, with his Irish descent.

Interesting times ahead, and not necessarily in a good way.