Johnson's new gamble

One of the best Brexit commentators is Chris Grey, his blog https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/ is one of the best informed and nuanced blog on the subject there is on the internet.

"Just from the first week of his new premiership, it’s possible to see that Johnson has embarked on a series of gambles in the domestic management of his party and in the negotiations with the EU. But he is taking a far bigger gamble without, apparently, realising it.

That gamble relates to the UK economy, and the investment and location decisions of businesses from some of the very largest right down to some self-employed individuals. An indicator that this is indeed the story of the week can be seen in how the pound, having risen on news of Johnson’s election victory, returned to its previous level when the transition period policy was announced.

For Johnson is saying, unequivocally, that from January 2021 businesses will be outside of the single market and customs union and that, unequivocally, if necessary that will be without any new trade deal being in place. He is also, therefore, telling them that they will face increased barriers to trade of a greater or lesser extent, whatever happens. For example, even if there were a zero tariffs, zero quotas goods trade deal, there will still be the extra costs of new customs procedures and, of course, new barriers to the hiring and deployment of staff.

In the time horizons of both business and personal planning that is a short period. Johnson perhaps believes, like so many Brexiters, that despite all the evidence to date the ‘Project Fear’ warnings were just that, so he can virtue signal about no deal with impunity. He’s doing so for political reasons but, in doing so, creating a potentially horrible economic trap. For the more his party, the electorate and the EU believe him the more likely it is that businesses will do so too, and act accordingly."

He and the other Brexiteers have failed to learn the lesson from the A50 process, and are hoping that the EU will blink first, and so ramping up the pressure will trigger the blink. It didn't work then, and that was when the UK could stop the process at any point, once the A50 period is over, there is no going back, all the leverage will be on the EU's side, and it will be painfully funny to see the Brexiteers realise this. The only downside is that they will have taken our country down with them, and the leverage will be be used against us.

The Brexiteers, and the country, will learn of the trade offs and compromises that will have to be done, but of course, it would help if the UK could decide what it was it wanted at the end. The more Johnson steers the Good Ship Brexit away from the a level playing field agreement with the EU, the more distant and slower trade deal could be agreed. But that would wreck large companies and entire industries.

Videos were again shared today when KFC ran out of chicken, and how people lost their shit that they could not get rancid chicken covered in 13 herbs and spices. As an aside, I have seen what quality chicken went to KFC, so I use the word "rancid" wisely. Away, the country will be three days away from riots if there are food shortages, remember the fuel blockades in 2000? A few people managed to make the country grid to a standstill. Imagine how bad the shit will be if there isn't enough power or water? At least Johnson has taken ownership of Brexit, he and his party and the 6 Labour MPs who voted for it.

Remember, its not about stopping Brexit, it will be about where it takes us, and if as a country we're not careful, it will be a very bad place. Johnson'd WA does not include services, which is a shame as our economy is 80% services. No FTA include services. Service companies who want to trade in the EU or with the EU very likely will have to move there. And they won't come back.

Johnson and most of the Brexiteers have had the best education money can buy, so they know how bad Brexit will be for the country, so why are they doing it, pushing it, willing to lie to the Monarch about it? What is in it for them?

That is the question, do they hate the poor, the sick, the disabled so much they would wreck the country ti get whatever it is they will get from Brexit?