Thursday, 5 December 2019

Reality

I was talking to Jools and I remarked that Johnson had told another bare-faced lie regarding Brexit.

While it would be good if the journalists and/or interviewers realsied it was a lie at the time and called it out, so he could be challenged. I mean it helps no one if the reporter is as ill-prepared as the Prime Minister seems to be, but that can be fixed.

Which is why Johnson and other senior Tories stay away from Channel 4 and Andrew Neil. Channel 4 has been accused of left wing bias simply because they ask the difficult questions to scrutinise the PM and minsisters, not just repeat the Government line which is what the BBC seems to be doing increasingly.

But no matter how many times Johnson or his ministers of Cummings says something will or will not happen, what they say fails to take into account reality.

Reality will always win out. Divergence from shared standards with the EU will creates red tape, red tape creates delays, and delays creates costs. It really is that simple. Most manufacturers operate on "lean" principles, and hold a minimum amount of stock on the manufacturing site, as warehousing costs money, and holding stock ties up finance which should be in a bank or elsewhere earning interest. The basic ignorance of this from Brexiteers is breathtaking, but we shall see when the future relationship is ever discussed that industry's requirements will be the opposite of the desires of the Brexiteers for greater divergence.

There will be a handful of months, maybe from march to the end of June to settle this and all the other requirements of industry, logistics and the stupidity of Brexit to be reconciled. Those were never really fixed for the three basic issues of the WA and that took over three years, to settle everything else in four months is simply impossible.

If the Government is serious about getting a trade deal of some kind with the EU, an extension or something that does the job of one but might well be called something else, will have to be agreed.

The basic reality that the EU sits 23 miles from the Kent coast, and trade with 500 million of the richest people on the planet cannot be replaced with trade to Australia, NZ or even the US, means that there will have to be trade, in high volumes with the EU, and that requires minimum divergence. Trade is most efficient, cost effective and done in higher volumes with a country's closest neighbours. Saying this is not the case will not change the reality.

Of course, Brexiteer and the PM will blame everyone, anyone, except themselves. But the reality will never change.

No comments: