Looking ahead

No one has looked beyond 31st January 2020. Well, except the EU. They have been planning and preparing, meaning that when the talks begin on the future arrangements, they will know their red lines and what they will give ground on.

The UK still hasn't decided.

If it is Johnson's plan to force through a no deal, then that doesn't matter.

If his plan is to negotiate something, then time is very short. He needs to decide on on what he and the UK wants. Past experience tells us that as soon as any kind of Brexit is written down, most other Brexiteers attack it for not being the one true Brexit.

That is not going to change.

What else isn't going to change is reality.

The reality of the futility of Brexit and that the EU sits 23 miles off the Kent coast. Trading is done most profitably and efficiently with your nearest neighbours, and no matter of trade with New Zealand will replace trade with France.

So far, Brexit has been full of glib catchphrases that don't actually mean anything: Brexit means Brexit, a points based immigration system, getting Brexit done, a tafiff free FTA, friction-less trade. And so on.

Remember you can have lots of trade but little control, or lots of trade and little control.

Reality won't change, and tough choices lay ahead, as does lobbying from industry.

I will have "I told you so" tattooed on my forehead.