Wednesday, 4 December 2019

Understanding Brexit

On a most basic level, I don't most of the public, and may politicians really understand what Brexit means or entails.

That the Article 50 notification sent by may started a two year clock, that gave the EU huge leverage as each day passed. And that that two year period was to negotiate the Withdrawal Agreement (WA).

The WA was to settle the three issues the EU thought most pressing, but once agreed would set in motion another clock, during which time the future trade arrangements between the UK and EU would be negotiated. In that time, although the UK would have left the EU, it would be bound by all agreements and standards, and the EU asked all other countries in that time to treat the UK as if it were still a member state. In other words, the WA is just to facilitate the status quo.

The original A50 period was due to end on March 29th 2019, and then the extension period was due to last until December 31st 2020, and in that time the future trading relationship would be discussed and maybe agreed.

But as each extension was requested and accepted, the end of the Extension was not extended, so with each day added to the A50, the transition period gets one day shorter. The WA covers three items, the transition would have to cover everything else, and Johnson seriously expects us to believe that this can be done before the end of July 2020 to allow for ratification?

There is no Brexit plan ready to go as Conservative Central office would have us believe, there is no agreement in Cabinet, Parliament or the country as to what that future relationship should be.

We have already seen the chaos that comes when entering negotiations when the UK doesn't know what its final position is, and is now, if Johnson wins the election with a majority, what is planned to do for the extension period.

Johnson and senior Brexiteers might have an idea, but that will not tally with the wishes and needs of UK companies and exporters who will want and lobby hard for as close alignment as possible to keep trading. This will not be easy, probably harder than balancing the desires of Leavers and Remainers during A50. And to get it done in seven months?

The Tories are running scared from debates and scrutiny, happy to create fake websites in opponents names, pulling out of hustings where their failings would be exposed. We are truly at a post-truth election now, and calling out lies no longer works, if people who want Brexit for whatever mad reason, just don't care, and seem to encourage the lies.

Reality will win, always will, and reality means that UK will be poorer. A lot poorer as a result. Just saying over and over again it won't, isn't going to change reality. It will be painful to watch, not that Johnson, Raab and co are wrong, but the cost to our once-great nation, doomed to become a laughing stock, or one greater than it is now. People in Denmark and Germany think we Brits have lost our collective minds. And its hard not to agree.

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