What next?

In summary, the problems have hardly started, yet.

Brexit will happen. Or that on 31st January 2012, the articles of the EU will no longer aplly to the UK, but the transition period will mean that for all intents and purposes, the rules and regulations will continue to apply.

For 11 months.

All that the WA and WAB does is agree that a transition period will begin.

The rest, as far as the UK is concerned, has yet to be decided.

But Johnson did the impossible, no? He got a revised WA when all said he couldn't?

Well, he abandoned one of his major lines, took the original WA offered to May which she and the Cabinet rejected due to the border in the Irish Sea.

So, Johnson could get a trade deal with the EU if he were to abandon similar "red lines" then such a deal could be done.

But this is not how it is being sold, or was sold to the country, Parliament and his party. But his party, and the ERG are not stupid. They know that the first proze is leaving the EU, then the choice of staying in will be off the able, at least for a generation, if not longer.

The ERG have already said they will block any kind of trade deal with the EU, and they only accepted the WA becasue they could force a no deal at the end of the transition.

The numbers and members of the ERG are secret (!), but is thought to number close to 60, more than enough to remove the Government's majority if they wanted. And most likely will. Question is whether the routed opposition benches would side with the ERG against the Government.

And then there is preparations. These have hardly begun in the UK, but in the EU are almost complete. Calais have built a who new road system and associated infrastructure. Staff needs to be identified, trained and facilities built. These will not happen overnight, doubly difficult as the rules as to what they will have to enforce have yet to be agreed.

The UK still is divided, the Government is divided, the Conservative Party is divided as to what the relationship with the EU should look like. And then there is business's point of view; they will want as close a relationship as possible to preserve markets and supply chains.

But Johnson said "fuck business", would he stick to this?

If he were to try to compromise, would the new intake of fresh Conservative MPs back the PM or the deal they all swore to uphold when selected? Few Governments have had such a high turnover of MPs mid-term. It will be interesting to see how that pans out.

What is clear is that the Conservative (and Unionist) Party will take ownership of Brexit, its success or failure will be down to them. And them alone.

The Labour Party is split in half, but the divisions on the Government benches are deeper and starker. The next year will be rough for the country, but nothing like it will be for the Tories. Enjoy the calm while you can.