People; friends, colleagues, have been asking me for three years, "where will Brexit lead to?".
This is a good question.
In my (humble) opinion, it will either end in no deal at the end of the transition period, or never-ending transition.
I cannot foresee Brexit not happening now.
Brexiteers will press for no deal at the end of the transition. This seems to be Johnson's position, as has repeatedly ruled out any extension to the already far too short extension period. If the UK is not ready for no deal, then it would be literal madness not to seek an extension.
In negotiations, no side gets everything they want from such talks. However, for Brexiteers, any suggestion of compromise is rejected, and yet any trade negotiations is nothing but a series of compromises.
Brexiteers will push for no deal, while business and industry will press for as close alignment as possible with EU rules and regulations, to ensure the continuation of trade. So, how Johnson balances out the desires of dogma and reality will be interesting. Only we will be caught between.
Who will win out? We have to hope relaity will wn. In that event, Brexiteers will spend the rest of their lives moaning about betrayal, as they have done for the last two decades, and whenever there is talk of a deal to be done with the EU.
Let us be frank here, the EU s not an enemy, unless we make them one. They are our closest neighbour, and it's population among the richest group of people on earth. Trade is done in great volume, most efficiently with those who are nearest geographically to us. So, suggesting replacing trade with the EU with trade to Australia or India does not make sense in trade terms. It is economically illiterate.
It is not talking the country down to say that the smaller side in negotiations has less leverage, it is a stone cold fact. Thing is, the EU doesn't want to punish the UK, but once it gets the WA and WAB ratified, it will all about securing the best deal for its economy, businesses and citizens. If Brexiteers think the EU has been hard thus far, they aint seen nothing yet.
But this would just be a prelude to the bitter tears that will come with trade talks with the US, Japan and China. The larger side dictates terms, the smaller decides whether to accept them straight away or later.
If the UK leaves the EU on the 31st December 2020, then there is no going back to the terms we are on now, or even a member state on lesser terms. The only way back will be via Article 49, and only once the political farce that is Westminster these days plays out and common sense and fact-based decision making returns to the body politic.
Whatever happens, the rank and file working class people will be caught in the middle and suffer the worse consequences. As always.
I should feel sorry for them, for us, but on a most basic level, we deserve Brexit, because we voted for it, and gave Johnson a majority when facts and common sense said we should do anything but.
The road ahead will be long and hard and there will be little to sustain us other than bitter tears of regret.
Maybe we had to see how Brexit would pan out, but from the start Brexit was in the hands of idiots, and now they run the country with almost unlimited power, because we voted for them. Or others did, I didn't. I held my nose and voted Labour, to get the Tory out of office.
Like the rest of the Remain "Alliance", I failed.
Leave did not win the referendum and the 2019 election, Remain lost. Lost when facts and common sense were on its side.
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